Aegean Intelligence Group
THE INTELLIGENCE PORTAL / THE LOGAEIG-WEB-LOG-v1.0 · PUBLIC RECORD · 2026
INTELLIGENCE · THE LOG

Everything the firm published, locked, resolved, corrected and refreshed, in order.

Aegean Intelligence Group keeps a public record: reports, the claims they make, the data series its Dashboard watches, and the datasets it publishes. Every dated event in that record is listed here, newest first, one line each: a report joining the register, a claim locked or settled, a correction issued, a dataset rebuilt, an indicator crossing its threshold, a feed going down or coming back. Bad news is included, because a log that omits it is not a log.

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THE STREAM
TypeAll (410)Reports (67)Rapid Intel Briefs (2)Claims (262)Series (63)Datasets (5)The instrument (11)
DeskDefense & Security (54)Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk (47)Mining & Manufacturing (53)Economic & Financial Markets (95)Political Risk & Governance (65)Supply Chain & Logistics (49)Firm-wide (47)

410 events on the record.

  1. 2026-10-28Claim resolvedCLM-2026-441US goods imports for September 2026 in the Census Bureau's advance report are…Supply Chain & LogisticsResolved TRUE: Imports of goods for September were $344.1 billion, $8.1 billion more than August imports.
  2. 2026-10-28Claim resolvedCLM-2026-336US Gulf of Mexico shut-in oil production falls below 5% of output by 23…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskResolved TRUE: On 14 October the MMA said there were “no known storm impacts preventing resumption of production,” and we found no published Isaias damage list.
  3. 2026-10-28Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-010Jianxiawo and the Lithium ReboundMining & ManufacturingJianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  4. 2026-10-28Claim lockedCLM-2026-447The closing price of the most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at range 75000 to 130000 yuan per tonne: The closing price of the most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on 31 December 2026.
  5. 2026-10-28Claim lockedCLM-2026-446CATL resumes ore mining at the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 January…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.45: CATL resumes ore mining at the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 January 2027.
  6. 2026-10-28Claim lockedCLM-2026-445The Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau issues its final approval…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.80: The Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau issues its final approval of the environmental impact report for the Jianxiawo lithium…
  7. 2026-10-28Series thresholdSER-EWI-13Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day)Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#13 Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day): RED to AMBER (reads 3 events against Within seasonal norm).
  8. 2026-10-28Feed restoredYahoo FinanceYahoo Finance: stale to live.
  9. 2026-10-28Feed restoredUSGS Earthquake Hazards ProgramUSGS Earthquake Hazards Program: stale to live.
  10. 2026-10-28Feed restoredIMF PortWatchIMF PortWatch: stale to live.
  11. 2026-10-28Feed restoredU.S. Treasury OFAC (SDN)U.S. Treasury OFAC (SDN): stale to live.
  12. 2026-10-28Feed restoredAISStream.ioAISStream.io: down to live.
  13. 2026-10-28Dataset rebuiltPKG-ofac-deltaOFAC SDN delta seriesPolitical Risk & GovernanceOFAC SDN delta series was rebuilt: 49 rows, version 2026-10-28.
  14. 2026-10-28Dataset rebuiltPKG-maritime-chokepointsMaritime chokepoint transitsSupply Chain & LogisticsMaritime chokepoint transits was rebuilt: 22,792 rows, version 2026-10-28.
  15. 2026-10-28Dataset rebuiltPKG-macro-and-curveMacro, curve and market historyEconomic & Financial MarketsMacro, curve and market history was rebuilt: 25,496 rows, version 2026-10-28.
  16. 2026-10-28Dataset rebuiltPKG-ewi-historyEarly-warning indicator historyEarly-warning indicator history was rebuilt: 734 rows, version 2026-10-28.
  17. 2026-10-28Dataset rebuiltPKG-claims-ledgerThe public claim ledgerThe public claim ledger was rebuilt: 220 rows, version 2026-10-28.
  18. 2026-10-27Feed degradedYahoo FinanceYahoo Finance: live to stale. The feed did not answer on its last run. The last good data, from 26 October 2026, is kept.
  19. 2026-10-27Feed degradedUSGS Earthquake Hazards ProgramUSGS Earthquake Hazards Program: live to stale. The feed did not answer on its last run. The last good data, from 26 October 2026, is kept.
  20. 2026-10-27Feed degradedIMF PortWatchIMF PortWatch: live to stale. The feed did not answer on its last run. The last good data, from 26 October 2026, is kept.
  21. 2026-10-27Feed degradedU.S. Treasury OFAC (SDN)U.S. Treasury OFAC (SDN): live to stale. The feed did not answer on its last run. The last good data, from 26 October 2026, is kept.
  22. 2026-10-27Feed degradedn/an/a: live to down. The feed has not answered for 1 runs in a row; it last answered on 26 October 2026. The last good data is kept.
  23. 2026-10-26Report publishedAIG-INS-26-009The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity AuctionInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskThe Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
  24. 2026-10-26Claim lockedCLM-2026-444PJM publishes the results of its base residual auction for the 2029/2030…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.90: PJM publishes the results of its base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year on or before 31 December 2026.
  25. 2026-10-26Claim lockedCLM-2026-443The shortfall of capacity cleared in PJM's base residual auction for the…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at range 3000 to 11000 MW: The shortfall of capacity cleared in PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year, with fixed resource requirement…
  26. 2026-10-26Series thresholdSER-EWI-14Active tropical cyclones on key lanesInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#14 Active tropical cyclones on key lanes: RED to GREEN (reads 0 on key lanes (6 active) against None on critical lanes).
  27. 2026-10-25Series thresholdSER-EWI-13Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day)Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#13 Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day): GREEN to RED (reads 5 events against Within seasonal norm).
  28. 2026-10-25Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: stale to down. The feed has not answered for 3 runs in a row; it last answered on 22 October 2026. The last good data is kept.
  29. 2026-10-23Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-008Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4Supply Chain & LogisticsHoliday Freight and Inventories, Q4 joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  30. 2026-10-23Claim lockedCLM-2026-442The advance estimate of US retail inventories for October 2026 is less than…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.80: The advance estimate of US retail inventories for October 2026 is less than 6.0 percent above October 2025.
  31. 2026-10-23Claim lockedCLM-2026-441US goods imports for September 2026 in the Census Bureau's advance report are…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.75: US goods imports for September 2026 in the Census Bureau's advance report are USD 320.0 billion or more.
  32. 2026-10-23Claim lockedCLM-2026-440The US total business inventories to sales ratio for September 2026 is 1.37 or…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.85: The US total business inventories to sales ratio for September 2026 is 1.37 or lower.
  33. 2026-10-23Claim lockedCLM-2026-439In the advance retail sales release for October 2026, the twelve-month growth…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.75: In the advance retail sales release for October 2026, the twelve-month growth of retail and food services sales excluding gasoline…
  34. 2026-10-23Claim lockedCLM-2026-438The advance estimate of US retail and food services sales for October 2026 is…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.85: The advance estimate of US retail and food services sales for October 2026 is at least 5.0 percent above October 2025.
  35. 2026-10-23Series thresholdSER-EWI-14Active tropical cyclones on key lanesInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#14 Active tropical cyclones on key lanes: GREEN to RED (reads 1 on key lanes (4 active) against None on critical lanes).
  36. 2026-10-23Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: live to stale. The feed did not answer on its last run. The last good data, from 22 October 2026, is kept.
  37. 2026-10-22Feed restoredGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: stale to live.
  38. 2026-10-21Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: live to stale. The feed did not answer on its last run. The last good data, from 20 October 2026, is kept.
  39. 2026-10-20Series thresholdSER-EWI-13Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day)Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#13 Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day): AMBER to GREEN (reads 2 events against Within seasonal norm).
  40. 2026-10-19Feed restoredGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: stale to live.
  41. 2026-10-17Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-009Precious and Primary Metals Into Year EndMining & ManufacturingPrecious and Primary Metals Into Year End joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  42. 2026-10-17Claim lockedCLM-2026-437Fed total industry capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 77.0 percent.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.50: Fed total industry capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 77.0 percent.
  43. 2026-10-17Claim lockedCLM-2026-436Fed primary metals capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 70.0 percent.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.85: Fed primary metals capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 70.0 percent.
  44. 2026-10-17Claim lockedCLM-2026-435Fed primary metals output for October 2026 is lower than in September 2026.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.55: Fed primary metals output for October 2026 is lower than in September 2026.
  45. 2026-10-17Series thresholdSER-EWI-13Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day)Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#13 Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day): RED to AMBER (reads 3 events against Within seasonal norm).
  46. 2026-10-17Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: live to stale. The feed did not answer on its last run. The last good data, from 16 October 2026, is kept.
  47. 2026-10-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-343Total Fed industrial production for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than…Mining & ManufacturingResolved TRUE: Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in September after edging up 0.1 percent in August.
  48. 2026-10-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-342Fed manufacturing output for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in…Mining & ManufacturingResolved TRUE: Manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent in September and increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the third quarter.
  49. 2026-10-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-250US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved TRUE: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
  50. 2026-10-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-234Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.Economic & Financial MarketsResolved TRUE: All 2026 independent MBOE appeals heard before September 1, 2026, will receive an independent MBOE Decision Notice in the mail by mid to late September.
  51. 2026-10-16Report publishedAIG-INS-26-008Cyber and Disaster Exposure, November and DecemberInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskCyber and Disaster Exposure, November and December joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
  52. 2026-10-16Claim lockedCLM-2026-434The President declares a major disaster for the State of Florida for Hurricane…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.80: The President declares a major disaster for the State of Florida for Hurricane Isaias on or before 31 December 2026.
  53. 2026-10-16Claim lockedCLM-2026-433The total number of entries in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at range 1790 to 1840 entries: The total number of entries in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date added on or before 31 December 2026.
  54. 2026-10-16Series thresholdSER-EWI-13Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day)Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#13 Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day): AMBER to RED (reads 5 events against Within seasonal norm).
  55. 2026-10-16Feed restoredGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: down to live.
  56. 2026-10-15Claim resolvedCLM-2026-400Euro area industrial production for August 2026 is higher than in July.Mining & ManufacturingResolved FALSE: In August 2026, compared with July 2026, seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 0.5% in the euro area
  57. 2026-10-15Claim resolvedCLM-2026-272The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved FALSE: For the October 15 to November 13, 2026 period: "The Desk plans to conduct approximately $14.6 billion in reinvestment purchases and no reserve management purchases"
  58. 2026-10-15Claim resolvedCLM-2026-248No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is…Defense & SecurityResolved TRUE: China sends military aircraft, coast guard ships and other vessels around Taiwan on a near-daily basis and periodically conducts large-scale military exercises. Taiwan also regularly holds military drills, including its annual Han Kuang exercises.
  59. 2026-10-14Claim resolvedCLM-2026-308The US CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved TRUE: The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.4-percent increase over the 12 months ending August.
  60. 2026-10-14Claim resolvedCLM-2026-307The US CPI-U all items index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or above…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved TRUE: Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
  61. 2026-10-14Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-007The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year EndSupply Chain & LogisticsThe Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  62. 2026-10-14Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-012The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South SudanPolitical Risk & GovernanceThe Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  63. 2026-10-14Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-011Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 JanuaryPolitical Risk & GovernanceSummit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  64. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-432Bahrain holds a Council of Representatives election on any day up to and…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.05: Bahrain holds a Council of Representatives election on any day up to and including 31 December 2026.
  65. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-431Voting in South Sudan's general election takes place on 22 December 2026.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.25: Voting in South Sudan's general election takes place on 22 December 2026.
  66. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-430Adama Barrow is declared the winner of The Gambia's 5 December 2026…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.70: Adama Barrow is declared the winner of The Gambia's 5 December 2026 presidential election.
  67. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-429The Opportunity Party wins at least 5 percent of the party vote in New…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: The Opportunity Party wins at least 5 percent of the party vote in New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election.
  68. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-428National, ACT and NZ First together win more than half of the seats in the…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.35: National, ACT and NZ First together win more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives in New Zealand's 7 November 2026…
  69. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-427Gross customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.80: Gross customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are more than USD 22 billion.
  70. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-426Net customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.70: Net customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are more than USD 15 billion.
  71. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-425The US goods trade deficit with China for October 2026, Census basis, in the…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.75: The US goods trade deficit with China for October 2026, Census basis, in the full trade release is less than USD 20.0 billion.
  72. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-424The seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for November 2026, Census…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: The seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for November 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report is more than USD 115…
  73. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-423The seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for October 2026, Census basis…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at range 108 to 142 USD billion: The seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for October 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report, as first published…
  74. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-422The Federal Register publishes, on or before 9 November 2026, a BIS rule or…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.35: The Federal Register publishes, on or before 9 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of…
  75. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-421The Defense Security Cooperation Agency posts a major arms sale notification…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.15: The Defense Security Cooperation Agency posts a major arms sale notification for Taiwan dated from 10 October to 15 December 2026.
  76. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-420The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.70: The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of…
  77. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-419The Federal Register publishes, on or before 12 January 2027, a presidential…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.55: The Federal Register publishes, on or before 12 January 2027, a presidential document or USTR notice that extends any US truce measure…
  78. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-418Xi Jinping attends the G20 leaders' summit in Miami in person.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.55: Xi Jinping attends the G20 leaders' summit in Miami in person.
  79. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-417President Trump travels to Shenzhen during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.75: President Trump travels to Shenzhen during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and meets Xi Jinping or appears at the meeting there.
  80. 2026-10-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-416The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a USTR notice…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.75: The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a USTR notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the…
  81. 2026-10-14Series thresholdSER-EWI-15Volcanic / ashfall aviation alertsInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#15 Volcanic / ashfall aviation alerts: AMBER to GREEN (reads 0 volcanic alerts at Orange or Red against No major aviation impact).
  82. 2026-10-13Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-009Gold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027Economic & Financial MarketsGold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027 joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  83. 2026-10-13Claim lockedCLM-2026-415The 10-year TIPS real yield for 31 December 2026 is at or above 2.60 percent.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.70: The 10-year TIPS real yield for 31 December 2026 is at or above 2.60 percent.
  84. 2026-10-13Claim lockedCLM-2026-414The People's Bank of China reports gold reserves at the end of November 2026…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.85: The People's Bank of China reports gold reserves at the end of November 2026 higher than at the end of October 2026.
  85. 2026-10-13Claim lockedCLM-2026-413The settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.20: The settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31 December 2026 is at or above USD 4650 per troy ounce.
  86. 2026-10-13Claim lockedCLM-2026-412The settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 3750 to 4800 USD per troy ounce: The settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31 December 2026 is about USD 4280 per troy ounce.
  87. 2026-10-13Series thresholdSER-EWI-13Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day)Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#13 Significant earthquakes (M6.5+, 7-day): GREEN to AMBER (reads 3 events against Within seasonal norm).
  88. 2026-10-12Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-008Europe's Industrial Recession TestMining & ManufacturingEurope's Industrial Recession Test joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  89. 2026-10-12Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-008The Agent Economy: Paid Research and Data for AI Agents, 2026 to 2027Economic & Financial MarketsThe Agent Economy: Paid Research and Data for AI Agents, 2026 to 2027 joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  90. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-411The total stablecoin market capitalisation on the DefiLlama stablecoins…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: The total stablecoin market capitalisation on the DefiLlama stablecoins dashboard is at or above 300 billion USD for 31 December 2026.
  91. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-410The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation publishes a final rule implementing…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.40: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation publishes a final rule implementing the GENIUS Act requirements and standards for…
  92. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-409The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency publishes a final rule…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency publishes a final rule implementing the GENIUS Act for OCC-supervised payment stablecoin…
  93. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-402German production excluding energy and construction for September 2026 is…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.45: German production excluding energy and construction for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.
  94. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-401German total production in industry for September 2026 is lower than in August.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: German total production in industry for September 2026 is lower than in August.
  95. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-400Euro area industrial production for August 2026 is higher than in July.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: Euro area industrial production for August 2026 is higher than in July.
  96. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-399The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026, as first published.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at range 50.6 to 53.8 index points: The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026, as first published.
  97. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-398The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.85: The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.
  98. 2026-10-12Claim lockedCLM-2026-361The Bank of Japan keeps its uncollateralized overnight call rate target at…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.75: The Bank of Japan keeps its uncollateralized overnight call rate target at around 1.25% at the Monetary Policy Meeting ending 30 October…
  99. 2026-10-12Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: empty to down. The feed has not answered for 12 runs in a row; it last answered on 30 September 2026. The last good data is kept.
  100. 2026-10-11Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-006Chokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit CountsSupply Chain & LogisticsChokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit Counts joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  101. 2026-10-11Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-007Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff WallMining & ManufacturingSteel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  102. 2026-10-11Report publishedAIG-INS-26-007The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity DemandInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskThe Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
  103. 2026-10-11Report publishedAIG-INS-26-006Winter Grid Stress: PJM, NERC and the Price of ColdInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskWinter Grid Stress: PJM, NERC and the Price of Cold joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
  104. 2026-10-11Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-010Beyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 2027Political Risk & GovernanceBeyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 2027 joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  105. 2026-10-11Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-011The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year?Defense & SecurityThe Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year? joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  106. 2026-10-11Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-010Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and CarriersDefense & SecurityIran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  107. 2026-10-11Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-007The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year EndEconomic & Financial MarketsThe Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  108. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-392The year-to-date growth of US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.80: The year-to-date growth of US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 exceeds the year-to-date growth of…
  109. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-391FERC issues an order on the merits on at least one regional operator's…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.40: FERC issues an order on the merits on at least one regional operator's response to its June 2026 large-load show cause orders by 31…
  110. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-390The December 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast of total US electricity…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at range 4310 to 4400 billion kWh: The December 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast of total US electricity consumption in 2027.
  111. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-389US all-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.75: US all-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at least 1.5 percent above January to September 2025 in the…
  112. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-388US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at least 3.0 percent above January to September 2025 in…
  113. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-387Commerce adds further derivative articles to the Section 232 duties following…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.50: Commerce adds further derivative articles to the Section 232 duties following the August 2026 request for comments, published by 7 January…
  114. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-386On 31 December 2026 the US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures price, converted to…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.85: On 31 December 2026 the US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures price, converted to tonnes, is at least twice the LME Steel HRC FOB China…
  115. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-385The US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures close on 31 December 2026 falls inside…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at range 1100 to 1400 USD per short ton: The US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures close on 31 December 2026 falls inside our range.
  116. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-384A Section 232 rate below 50 percent for primary aluminium of Canadian origin…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.20: A Section 232 rate below 50 percent for primary aluminium of Canadian origin, available to all Canadian producers rather than only…
  117. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-383The standard Section 232 rate of 50 percent on Annex I-A steel and aluminium…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.88: The standard Section 232 rate of 50 percent on Annex I-A steel and aluminium articles of all origins remains in force through 7 January…
  118. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-382Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026 will be…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at range 3820 to 3980 Bcf: Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026 will be about 3,900 Bcf.
  119. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-381The RTO clearing price of PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.70: The RTO clearing price of PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year equals that auction's price cap.
  120. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-380Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026, in the…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.70: Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026, in the weekly storage report released on 19 November 2026, is at or…
  121. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-379Total daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks of the…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.70: Total daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks of the Panama Canal in effect on 24 November 2026 are 33 or more.
  122. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-378The weekly count of Suez Canal transits in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.60: The weekly count of Suez Canal transits in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Brief published on or after 24 November 2026 is 270…
  123. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-377The preliminary weekly count of Bab el-Mandeb transits in the first Lloyd's…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: The preliminary weekly count of Bab el-Mandeb transits in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Brief published on or after 24…
  124. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-376The total non-Iranian-linked transits of the Strait of Hormuz for the latest…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at range 70 to 210 transits: The total non-Iranian-linked transits of the Strait of Hormuz for the latest complete week reported in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence…
  125. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-375IAEA inspectors carry out an inspection, confirmed by the agency, at any…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.10: IAEA inspectors carry out an inspection, confirmed by the agency, at any facility at the Fordow, Natanz or Isfahan nuclear sites, the…
  126. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-374The USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker places the USS Theodore Roosevelt in…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.50: The USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker places the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the US Central Command area of responsibility in an edition…
  127. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-373The cumulative number of merchant vessels redirected under the US blockade of…Defense & SecurityLocked at range 150 to 225 vessels: The cumulative number of merchant vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command…
  128. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-372US Central Command announces at least one US strike on a target on Iranian…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.40: US Central Command announces at least one US strike on a target on Iranian land territory carried out between 2026-11-04 and 2026-12-31.
  129. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-371The IAEA Board of Governors adopts a new resolution on Iran at any session…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.45: The IAEA Board of Governors adopts a new resolution on Iran at any session held between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.
  130. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-370The governments of the United States and Iran both publicly confirm a signed…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.15: The governments of the United States and Iran both publicly confirm a signed agreement that provides for lifting or suspending the US…
  131. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-369The Office of Foreign Assets Control designates at least one additional vessel…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.80: The Office of Foreign Assets Control designates at least one additional vessel under Iran-related sanctions authorities between 2026-10-11…
  132. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-368Democrat Sherrod Brown wins the 3 November 2026 Ohio Senate special election.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.55: Democrat Sherrod Brown wins the 3 November 2026 Ohio Senate special election.
  133. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-367The Republican candidate wins the 3 November 2026 Kansas governor election.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.60: The Republican candidate wins the 3 November 2026 Kansas governor election.
  134. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-366The number of the 50 state governorships held by Democrats after the 2026…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at range 23 to 28 governorships: The number of the 50 state governorships held by Democrats after the 2026 elections.
  135. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-365Democrat Troy Jackson defeats Senator Susan Collins in the 3 November 2026…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.55: Democrat Troy Jackson defeats Senator Susan Collins in the 3 November 2026 Maine Senate election.
  136. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-364Euro area core HICP annual inflation, the index excluding energy, food…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.85: Euro area core HICP annual inflation, the index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, for October 2026 is at or below 2.7% in the…
  137. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-363Euro area headline HICP annual inflation for October 2026 is at or above 3.5%…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.55: Euro area headline HICP annual inflation for October 2026 is at or above 3.5% in the Eurostat flash estimate.
  138. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-362The one-year loan prime rate is 3.0% in the December 2026 fixing.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.85: The one-year loan prime rate is 3.0% in the December 2026 fixing.
  139. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-360The Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4.00% or higher at the decision of 5…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: The Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4.00% or higher at the decision of 5 November 2026.
  140. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-359The ECB deposit facility rate is at or above 2.75% after the monetary policy…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.70: The ECB deposit facility rate is at or above 2.75% after the monetary policy meeting of 17 December 2026.
  141. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-358The ECB keeps the deposit facility rate at 2.50% at its monetary policy…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.85: The ECB keeps the deposit facility rate at 2.50% at its monetary policy meeting of 29 October 2026.
  142. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-347The Senate agrees to a full text of the National Defense Authorization Act for…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.25: The Senate agrees to a full text of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027, whether S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended or…
  143. 2026-10-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-346The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 is enacted into…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 is enacted into law on or before 3 January 2027.
  144. 2026-10-11Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: down to empty. The feed answered with nothing relevant in its window, so the last good items are kept.
  145. 2026-10-10Claim resolvedCLM-2026-287The Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent for the 270,000 mt…Supply Chain & LogisticsResolved FALSE: TD3C (270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China) climbed 115 points to WS1,318.75, which gives a daily round-trip TCE of $1,412,594 for the standard Baltic VLCC
  146. 2026-10-10Claim resolvedCLM-2026-271DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved FALSE: {"date":"1791504000", ... "totalCirculatingUSD":{"peggedUSD":311611497263, ... "peggedEUR":823585998, ... "peggedRUB":551057812, ...}} (timestamp 1791504000 = 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC; peggedUSD ≈ $311.61bn; all 28 peg types summed ≈ $313.31bn)
  147. 2026-10-10Claim resolvedCLM-2026-266The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties…Political Risk & GovernanceResolved FALSE: 23 PLA aircraft detected, of which 16 crossed the median line and entered the northern, central and southwestern airspace
  148. 2026-10-10Claim resolvedCLM-2026-262MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an…Mining & ManufacturingResolved FALSE: Official policy shifts or extensions regarding major trade suspensions like Announcement No. 70 are typically synchronized with higher-level diplomatic meetings, or timed right before the actual expiration date (November 10, 2026). Furthermore, today is a Saturday, and both MOFCOM and White House press offices rarely drop major, non-emergency bilateral trade announcements over the weekend.
  149. 2026-10-10Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-006China's Factory Cycle at the APEC TableMining & ManufacturingChina's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  150. 2026-10-10Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-005The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory JobsMining & ManufacturingThe Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  151. 2026-10-10Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-006US Prices and Wages After the First HikeEconomic & Financial MarketsUS Prices and Wages After the First Hike joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  152. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-357China's Ministry of Commerce or General Administration of Customs publishes…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.75: China's Ministry of Commerce or General Administration of Customs publishes, on or before 10 November 2026, an announcement extending…
  153. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-356China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026, as first published.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at range 49 to 50.3 index points: China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026, as first published.
  154. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-355China's official new export orders sub-index for October 2026 is at or above…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.35: China's official new export orders sub-index for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.
  155. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-354China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.38: China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.
  156. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-353In November 2026 the CPI-U all items 12-month change exceeds the CPI-U all…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: In November 2026 the CPI-U all items 12-month change exceeds the CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change by at least 0.8…
  157. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-352The Employment Cost Index wages and salaries for civilian workers rise 3.3…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.75: The Employment Cost Index wages and salaries for civilian workers rise 3.3 percent or less over the 12 months to September 2026.
  158. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-351Real average hourly earnings of all employees fall over the 12 months to…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.80: Real average hourly earnings of all employees fall over the 12 months to November 2026.
  159. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-350Average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees rise 3.1 percent or…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.80: Average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees rise 3.1 percent or less over the 12 months to October 2026.
  160. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-349The CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for November…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.70: The CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.
  161. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-348The CPI-U all items index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.60: The CPI-U all items index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.
  162. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-345The ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.85: The ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.
  163. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-344The monthly change in US manufacturing employment for October 2026.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at range -15 to 35 thousand jobs: The monthly change in US manufacturing employment for October 2026.
  164. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-343Total Fed industrial production for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.55: Total Fed industrial production for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.
  165. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-342Fed manufacturing output for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.60: Fed manufacturing output for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.
  166. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-341The ISM prices index for October 2026 is at or above 70.0.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.75: The ISM prices index for October 2026 is at or above 70.0.
  167. 2026-10-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-340The ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 53.0.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.70: The ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 53.0.
  168. 2026-10-09Claim resolvedCLM-2026-265Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same…Political Risk & GovernanceResolved FALSE: Ukraine ready for US-backed talks with Russia: Zelenskyy ... the US is pushing for "technical-level talks by the end of October" ... Kyiv is open to the UAE or "another country proposed by the American side."
  169. 2026-10-09Claim resolvedCLM-2026-253A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct…Defense & SecurityResolved FALSE: The Senate will return for business on Monday, November 9th at 3:00 p.m. At that time, following any Leader remarks, the Senate will resume consideration of the motion to proceed to H.R.2347 Survivor Justice Tax Prevention Act; the legislative vehicle for the permitting reform bill.
  170. 2026-10-09Claim resolvedCLM-2026-252The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027…Defense & SecurityResolved FALSE: Roll Call Votes 119th Congress - 2nd Session (2026)
  171. 2026-10-09Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-005Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last QuarterSupply Chain & LogisticsBox Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  172. 2026-10-09Report publishedAIG-INS-26-005The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven WeeksInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskThe Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
  173. 2026-10-09Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-009Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the RealPolitical Risk & GovernanceBrazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  174. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-339The Shanghai to Rotterdam rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.60: The Shanghai to Rotterdam rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 3,337 per 40ft…
  175. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-338The Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.60: The Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 6,500 per 40ft…
  176. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-337The composite of Drewry's World Container Index in the assessment dated 26…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at range 3100 to 4600 USD: The composite of Drewry's World Container Index in the assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be about USD 3,800 per 40ft container.
  177. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-336US Gulf of Mexico shut-in oil production falls below 5% of output by 23…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.60: US Gulf of Mexico shut-in oil production falls below 5% of output by 23 October 2026.
  178. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-335The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO diagnostic discussion of 12 November 2026…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.80: The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO diagnostic discussion of 12 November 2026 keeps the El Nino Advisory in force and reports a weekly…
  179. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-334The total number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at range 9 to 12 named storms: The total number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, counted at the season's end on 30 November 2026.
  180. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-333At least one Atlantic hurricane other than Isaias forms between 9 October 2026…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.35: At least one Atlantic hurricane other than Isaias forms between 9 October 2026 and 30 November 2026.
  181. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-332The Brazilian real trades stronger than 5.10 reais per US dollar on 30 October…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: The Brazilian real trades stronger than 5.10 reais per US dollar on 30 October 2026, the first full trading week after the runoff.
  182. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-331Flavio Bolsonaro's share of the valid votes in Brazil's presidential runoff of…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at range 49.5 to 54.5 percent: Flavio Bolsonaro's share of the valid votes in Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.
  183. 2026-10-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-330Flavio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.72: Flavio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.
  184. 2026-10-09Series thresholdSER-EWI-15Volcanic / ashfall aviation alertsInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#15 Volcanic / ashfall aviation alerts: GREEN to AMBER (reads 1 volcanic alert at Orange or Red against No major aviation impact).
  185. 2026-10-08Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-004Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limitsSupply Chain & LogisticsChoke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  186. 2026-10-08Report publishedAIG-INS-26-004Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid PricingInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskGrid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
  187. 2026-10-08Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-008Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset ElectionPolitical Risk & GovernanceIsrael Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  188. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-329A new Israeli government wins a Knesset confidence vote on or before 6 January…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.35: A new Israeli government wins a Knesset confidence vote on or before 6 January 2027.
  189. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-328Yashar wins more seats than Likud in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.55: Yashar wins more seats than Likud in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.
  190. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-327The number of seats won by the Netanyahu bloc, as defined in Claim C-2, in the…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at range 47 to 60 seats: The number of seats won by the Netanyahu bloc, as defined in Claim C-2, in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.
  191. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-326The Netanyahu bloc, meaning Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.20: The Netanyahu bloc, meaning Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit and Amcha Yisrael with any list running…
  192. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-325Israel holds its Knesset election on 27 October 2026.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.93: Israel holds its Knesset election on 27 October 2026.
  193. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-324The BLS producer price index for transformers and power regulators (series…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at range 432 to 452 index points: The BLS producer price index for transformers and power regulators (series WPU1174, not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as first…
  194. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-323GE Vernova reports gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.78: GE Vernova reports gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements of 120 GW or more as at 30 September 2026.
  195. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-322The BLS producer price index for switchgear, switchboard and industrial…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.72: The BLS producer price index for switchgear, switchboard and industrial controls equipment (series WPU1175, not seasonally adjusted) for…
  196. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-315Total daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks in effect on…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: Total daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 are 32 or more.
  197. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-314India announces a new ban, export duty or minimum export price on non-basmati…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.15: India announces a new ban, export duty or minimum export price on non-basmati rice exports between 9 October 2026 and 28 December 2026.
  198. 2026-10-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-313The maximum authorised draft in the Panama Canal Neopanamax locks in effect on…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.55: The maximum authorised draft in the Panama Canal Neopanamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 is 49.0 feet or more.
  199. 2026-10-07Claim resolvedCLM-2026-249EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved FALSE: Brent crude oil price on October 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? $ 102.25
  200. 2026-10-07Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-005Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?Economic & Financial MarketsHiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing? joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  201. 2026-10-07Claim lockedCLM-2026-312The US unemployment rate for November 2026 is at or above 4.5 percent.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.12: The US unemployment rate for November 2026 is at or above 4.5 percent.
  202. 2026-10-07Claim lockedCLM-2026-311US real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 grows at an annual rate of at least…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.80: US real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 grows at an annual rate of at least 1.0 percent in the BEA advance estimate.
  203. 2026-10-07Claim lockedCLM-2026-310The upper limit of the federal funds target range is at or above 4.25 percent…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.75: The upper limit of the federal funds target range is at or above 4.25 percent after the FOMC meeting ending 9 December 2026.
  204. 2026-10-07Claim lockedCLM-2026-309The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its meeting ending 28…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.35: The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its meeting ending 28 October 2026.
  205. 2026-10-07Claim lockedCLM-2026-308The US CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.85: The US CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.
  206. 2026-10-07Claim lockedCLM-2026-307The US CPI-U all items index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or above…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.60: The US CPI-U all items index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or above 3.4 percent.
  207. 2026-10-07Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): AMBER to RED (reads $101.89 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  208. 2026-10-06Claim resolvedCLM-2026-291The October 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US LNG gross exports…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved TRUE: U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day): 11.9 | 15.1 | 17.6 | 18.6 [2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027]
  209. 2026-10-06Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-007Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy riskPolitical Risk & GovernanceMidterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  210. 2026-10-06Claim lockedCLM-2026-306The number of House seats won by Democrats in the 3 November 2026 election.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at range 214 to 242 seats: The number of House seats won by Democrats in the 3 November 2026 election.
  211. 2026-10-06Claim lockedCLM-2026-305A lapse in appropriations shuts down any part of the federal government…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.20: A lapse in appropriations shuts down any part of the federal government between 12 December and 31 December 2026.
  212. 2026-10-06Claim lockedCLM-2026-304The 2026 election produces a Democratic majority in both the House and the…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.40: The 2026 election produces a Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate.
  213. 2026-10-06Claim lockedCLM-2026-303The 2026 election produces a Democratic House majority and a Republican Senate…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.30: The 2026 election produces a Democratic House majority and a Republican Senate majority.
  214. 2026-10-06Claim lockedCLM-2026-302Democrats and independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 Senate seats…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.45: Democrats and independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 Senate seats after the 2026 elections.
  215. 2026-10-06Claim lockedCLM-2026-301Democrats win at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives in the 3…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.70: Democrats win at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives in the 3 November 2026 election.
  216. 2026-10-06Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): RED to AMBER (reads $98.10 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  217. 2026-10-05Correction issuedCLM-2026-246The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).Supply Chain & LogisticsCOR-2026-002: The record was put right at 18:48 UTC on 2026-10-02 (RTP-0610): CLM-2026-246 is resolved FALSE, resolved on 2026-10-02.
  218. 2026-10-05Claim resolvedCLM-2026-269September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.Economic & Financial MarketsResolved TRUE: Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in September.
  219. 2026-10-05Claim resolvedCLM-2026-264The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United…Political Risk & GovernanceResolved TRUE: "Единая Россия" получает 349 мандатов в Думе. По итогам выборов в Госдуму "Единая Россия" получает 349 мандатов, КПРФ - 37, ЛДПР - 23, "Новые люди" - 19, "Справедливая Россия" - 17 мандатов... 140 по федеральному округу и 209 - по одномандатным округам.
  220. 2026-10-05Claim resolvedCLM-2026-254United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the…Defense & SecurityResolved TRUE: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed the orderly departure of U.S. forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base, Sept. 30, marking the end of the Operation Inherent Resolve mission in Iraq.
  221. 2026-10-05Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: empty to down. The feed has not answered for 5 runs in a row; it last answered on 30 September 2026. The last good data is kept.
  222. 2026-10-04Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: down to empty. The feed answered with nothing relevant in its window, so the last good items are kept.
  223. 2026-10-03Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): AMBER to RED (reads $102.25 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  224. 2026-10-03Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: stale to down. The feed has not answered for 3 runs in a row; it last answered on 30 September 2026. The last good data is kept.
  225. 2026-10-02Claim resolvedCLM-2026-285The EEX EU allowance primary market spot auction clearing price for the EU…Supply Chain & LogisticsResolved TRUE: The 29 September EU common auction cleared at EUR 84.87 per tonne
  226. 2026-10-02Claim resolvedCLM-2026-282A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved FALSE: The cloture motion received 49 yeas, below the required 60. Proposed disposition: FALSE.
  227. 2026-10-02Claim resolvedCLM-2026-268August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.Economic & Financial MarketsResolved FALSE: Core PCE inflation was 3.0% year over year. Proposed disposition: FALSE.
  228. 2026-10-02Claim resolvedCLM-2026-247A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is…Political Risk & GovernanceResolved FALSE: Negotiations had not produced an agreement by the deadline. Proposed disposition: FALSE.
  229. 2026-10-02Claim resolvedCLM-2026-246The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01…Supply Chain & LogisticsResolved FALSE: The evidence shows continuing attacks, protected transit, and materially depressed traffic.
  230. 2026-10-02Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-004The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?Economic & Financial MarketsThe Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow? joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  231. 2026-10-02Claim lockedCLM-2026-300The FAO Food Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.20: The FAO Food Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 140.1 points.
  232. 2026-10-02Claim lockedCLM-2026-299The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.55: The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 198.6 points.
  233. 2026-10-02Claim lockedCLM-2026-298The FAO Sugar Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.75: The FAO Sugar Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 106.4 points.
  234. 2026-10-02Claim lockedCLM-2026-297The FAO Food Price Index for October 2026, as first published, is at or above…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.55: The FAO Food Price Index for October 2026, as first published, is at or above 136.0 points.
  235. 2026-10-01Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: live to stale. The feed did not answer on its last run. The last good data, from 30 September 2026, is kept.
  236. 2026-09-30Series thresholdSER-EWI-10Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): AMBER to RED (reads 92 designations against Baseline tempo).
  237. 2026-09-29Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-003Rise of North American Energy DominanceEconomic & Financial MarketsRise of North American Energy Dominance joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  238. 2026-09-29Claim lockedCLM-2026-296A completed attack that national authorities describe as Islamist or jihadist…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.50: A completed attack that national authorities describe as Islamist or jihadist terrorism kills at least one person in an EU Member State or…
  239. 2026-09-29Claim lockedCLM-2026-295Fewer than 25,000 people are recorded arriving in the UK by small boat in the…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.55: Fewer than 25,000 people are recorded arriving in the UK by small boat in the calendar year 2026 up to and including 26 December 2026.
  240. 2026-09-29Claim lockedCLM-2026-294Violent disorder described as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.40: Violent disorder described as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation takes place on at…
  241. 2026-09-29Claim lockedCLM-2026-293EIA reports US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks for the week ending…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.45: EIA reports US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11 below 280.0 million barrels.
  242. 2026-09-29Claim lockedCLM-2026-292EIA reports Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 2026-10-30…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.80: EIA reports Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 2026-10-30 above the five-year average.
  243. 2026-09-29Claim lockedCLM-2026-291The October 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US LNG gross exports…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.60: The October 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US LNG gross exports for 2027 at or above 18.6 Bcf/d.
  244. 2026-09-29Claim lockedCLM-2026-290The EIA daily Europe Brent spot price FOB for 2026-12-18 is at or above 100…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.45: The EIA daily Europe Brent spot price FOB for 2026-12-18 is at or above 100 USD per barrel.
  245. 2026-09-29Claim lockedCLM-2026-289EIA weekly US crude oil field production for the week ending 2026-11-20 is at…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.75: EIA weekly US crude oil field production for the week ending 2026-11-20 is at or above 13.90 mb/d.
  246. 2026-09-29Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): RED to AMBER (reads $97.30 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  247. 2026-09-29Feed restoredGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: down to live.
  248. 2026-09-28Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-009Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is HighestDefense & SecurityElevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  249. 2026-09-28Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): AMBER to RED (reads $101.11 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  250. 2026-09-26Series thresholdSER-EWI-16Flood / drought disaster declarationsInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#16 Flood / drought disaster declarations: GRAY to AMBER (reads 5 flood or drought alerts at Orange or Red against Baseline).
  251. 2026-09-26Series thresholdSER-EWI-15Volcanic / ashfall aviation alertsInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#15 Volcanic / ashfall aviation alerts: GRAY to GREEN (reads 0 volcanic alerts at Orange or Red against No major aviation impact).
  252. 2026-09-26Series thresholdSER-EWI-14Active tropical cyclones on key lanesInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskEWI#14 Active tropical cyclones on key lanes: GRAY to GREEN (reads 0 on key lanes (7 active) against None on critical lanes).
  253. 2026-09-26Series thresholdSER-EWI-10Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): GRAY to AMBER (reads 39 designations against Baseline tempo).
  254. 2026-09-26Feed restoredGDACS (UN and European Commission)GDACS (UN and European Commission): unknown to live.
  255. 2026-09-25BRIER releaseBRIERInstrument change: forward-claim standard and scoring ruleInstrument change: forward-claim standard and scoring rule: The forward-claim standard in Methodology chapter 08 was reworded. The scoring rule in Methodology chapter 09 was reworded. Affects scoring.
  256. 2026-09-25Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): RED to AMBER (reads $98.99 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  257. 2026-09-25Feed degradedACLEDACLED: blocked to down. HTTP Error 403: Forbidden
  258. 2026-09-24Correction issuedCLM-2026-245The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).Economic & Financial MarketsCOR-2026-001: Nothing in claim CLM-2026-245 was edited; its locked statement, probability, resolution and resolved_on are unchanged.
  259. 2026-09-24Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): AMBER to RED (reads $104.35 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  260. 2026-09-24Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: live to down. GET failed after 3 tries: https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc?query=(war%20OR%20sanctions%20OR%20military%20OR%20conflict%20OR%20strike%20OR%20attack%20OR%20ceasefire%20OR%20sanctions)&mode=ar
  261. 2026-09-23Feed restoredGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: down to live.
  262. 2026-09-23Feed restoredIMF PortWatchIMF PortWatch: down to live.
  263. 2026-09-22Feed degradedIMF PortWatchIMF PortWatch: live to down. PortWatch Daily_Chokepoints_Data returned no rows.
  264. 2026-09-19Series thresholdSER-EWI-10Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): GREEN to GRAY (reads No live source against Baseline tempo).
  265. 2026-09-18Series thresholdSER-EWI-10Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): GRAY to GREEN (reads 16 designations against Baseline tempo).
  266. 2026-09-17Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): RED to AMBER (reads $99.48 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  267. 2026-09-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-281The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved FALSE: Table 1 memo, projected appropriate policy path, federal funds rate median, 2027 column: 4.1 percent
  268. 2026-09-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-280At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved FALSE: by a 12 - 0 vote
  269. 2026-09-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-279The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved TRUE: Table 1 memo, projected appropriate policy path, federal funds rate median, 2026 column: 4.1 percent
  270. 2026-09-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-278The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved TRUE: target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent
  271. 2026-09-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-245The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September…Economic & Financial MarketsResolved FALSE: target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent
  272. 2026-09-16Claim resolvedCLM-2026-157The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and…Defense & SecurityResolved FALSE: The interim final rule is effective July 1, 2026.
  273. 2026-09-16Feed degradedGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: live to down. GET failed after 3 tries: https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc?query=(war%20OR%20sanctions%20OR%20military%20OR%20conflict%20OR%20strike%20OR%20attack%20OR%20ceasefire%20OR%20sanctions)&mode=ar
  274. 2026-09-14Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-003$700,000 a DaySupply Chain & Logistics$700,000 a Day joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  275. 2026-09-14Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-00270% and CountingSupply Chain & Logistics70% and Counting joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  276. 2026-09-14Rapid Intel Brief publishedAIG-RIB-26-002Both Banks of the StraitSupply Chain & LogisticsBoth Banks of the Strait joined the Rapid Intel Brief archive and the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  277. 2026-09-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-288Conditional on the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.85: Conditional on the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly announcing an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz on or…
  278. 2026-09-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-287The Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent for the 270,000 mt…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at range 320000 to 1.02e+06 US dollars per day, round-trip time charter equivalent for the standard Baltic VLCC: The Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent for the 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China route, as published in the Baltic…
  279. 2026-09-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-286The next European Commission Carbon Market Report, or any other European…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.25: The next European Commission Carbon Market Report, or any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on…
  280. 2026-09-14Claim lockedCLM-2026-285The EEX EU allowance primary market spot auction clearing price for the EU…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at range 76 to 94 EUR per tonne CO2: The EEX EU allowance primary market spot auction clearing price for the EU common auction held on 30 September 2026, or for the last EU…
  281. 2026-09-14Feed restoredGDELT ProjectGDELT Project: down to live.
  282. 2026-09-12Series thresholdSER-EWI-10Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): GREEN to GRAY (reads No live source against Baseline tempo).
  283. 2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-SCL-26-001Panama's Second DroughtSupply Chain & LogisticsPanama's Second Drought joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  284. 2026-09-11Rapid Intel Brief publishedAIG-RIB-26-001Sixty Votes, One Honest UnknownEconomic & Financial MarketsSixty Votes, One Honest Unknown joined the Rapid Intel Brief archive and the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  285. 2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-004Forty-Seven Days to November 10Mining & ManufacturingForty-Seven Days to November 10 joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  286. 2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-006Three Percent on PaperPolitical Risk & GovernanceThree Percent on Paper joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  287. 2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-005After the DumaPolitical Risk & GovernanceAfter the Duma joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  288. 2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-ECO-26-002The First Warsh Hike?Economic & Financial MarketsThe First Warsh Hike? joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  289. 2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-ECO-26-001Hiking Into a Supply ShockEconomic & Financial MarketsHiking Into a Supply Shock joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  290. 2026-09-11Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-008The Lead Agency RuleDefense & SecurityThe Lead Agency Rule joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  291. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-284The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at range 45 to 48 feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft: The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured…
  292. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-283The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.20: The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum…
  293. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-282A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.55: A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September 2026.
  294. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-281The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 3.6 to 4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2027: The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections…
  295. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-280At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement…
  296. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-279The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 3.8 to 4.4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2026: The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections…
  297. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-278The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.40: The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.
  298. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-277The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.75: The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is…
  299. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-276The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.55: The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or…
  300. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-275At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.20: At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own…
  301. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-274The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.78: The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.
  302. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-273The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.68: The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.
  303. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-272The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.70: The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to…
  304. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-271DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.38: DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.
  305. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-270The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.35: The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.
  306. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-269September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.38: September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.
  307. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-268August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.62: August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.
  308. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-267The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.15: The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before…
  309. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-266The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.12: The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence…
  310. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-265Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.55: Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in…
  311. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-264The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.80: The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its…
  312. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-263MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.92: MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.
  313. 2026-09-11Claim lockedCLM-2026-262MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.25: MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and…
  314. 2026-09-10BRIER releaseBRIERNative score and integrity recordNative score and integrity record: The headline score now includes only BRIER-native claims locked no later than publication. Legacy prospective and retrospective entries remain public on separate tracks. The instrument now publishes ledger and claim fingerprints, content-addressed snapshots, selection counts, learning roles and conservative claim families under Record integrity. Affects scoring.
  315. 2026-09-10Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-007Feedstock Before FirepowerDefense & SecurityFeedstock Before Firepower joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  316. 2026-09-10Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-006The Rearmament LedgerDefense & SecurityThe Rearmament Ledger joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  317. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-261A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.12: A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War…
  318. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-260Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code…Defense & SecurityLocked at range 5 to 8.5 United States dollars, billions, nominal, contract obligations: Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from…
  319. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-259The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.15: The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026…
  320. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-258The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.18: The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14…
  321. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-257Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.60: Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as…
  322. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-256Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.10: Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before…
  323. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-255The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.40: The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award…
  324. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-254United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.50: United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition…
  325. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-253A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.10: A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the…
  326. 2026-09-10Claim lockedCLM-2026-252The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.08: The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9…
  327. 2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-11Active high-intensity conflict zonesPolitical Risk & GovernanceEWI#11 Active high-intensity conflict zones: RED to GRAY (reads No live source against No new zone escalation).
  328. 2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-10Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): GRAY to GREEN (reads 4 designations against Baseline tempo).
  329. 2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-09Global conflict event density (7-day)Political Risk & GovernanceEWI#9 Global conflict event density (7-day): GREEN to GRAY (reads No live source against Within 1σ of trailing mean).
  330. 2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-05Brent crude spot ($/bbl)Economic & Financial MarketsEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): AMBER to RED (reads $101.72 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).
  331. 2026-09-10Series thresholdSER-EWI-03Strait of Hormuz transit volumeSupply Chain & LogisticsEWI#3 Strait of Hormuz transit volume: AMBER to RED (reads 4% of baseline against >90% of baseline).
  332. 2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIERScorecard reader openerScorecard reader opener: The Scorecard now opens by defining a claim, the probability, the four statuses and the Brier score for a reader who has never met the firm, before the first figure appears. Does not affect scoring.
  333. 2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIEREra 4, Phase 1: the registry and the PortalEra 4, Phase 1: the registry and the Portal: The Intelligence Portal front, the registry of every report, claim, series, dataset and desk, the header band on every object page, and site search. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.
  334. 2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIEREra 4, Phase 2: series pagesEra 4, Phase 2: series pages: One page per series the Dashboard watches, 44 today, with its chart, its source and tier, its package and citation line, and the claims that resolve against it. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.
  335. 2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIEREra 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the LogEra 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the Log: One page per public claim, and the Log of every dated event on the record as a page, an RSS feed and a JSON file. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.
  336. 2026-09-09BRIER releaseBRIEREra 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portalEra 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portal: BRIER documented as a system: the instrument panel drawn from the same ledger as the Scorecard, how it works, and this changelog. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.
  337. 2026-09-08BRIER releaseBRIERForward-claim standard, first applicationForward-claim standard, first application: The forward-claim standard was written into Methodology chapter 08 and applied to the register: three tests for a claim to lock, wording and resolution rules, the void condition, and the band-to-probability table (HIGH 0.85, MODERATE 0.65, LOW 0.50 as first set). 37 claims locked from 19 dated publications. Affects scoring.
  338. 2026-09-08BRIER releaseBRIERLOW band aligned to 0.55LOW band aligned to 0.55: The LOW band moved from 0.50 to 0.55 to match the default the firm's calibration engine has run on since June 2026. No locked claim carried a LOW band, so no score changed. Affects scoring.
  339. 2026-09-08BRIER releaseBRIERContested stateContested state: A claim whose outcome is contested between sources of equal standing stays open with the contest written into its note, for the founders to rule on; until then it adds nothing to the score. First applied to CLM-2026-157. Affects scoring.
  340. 2026-09-08BRIER releaseBRIERForward benchmark on the ledgerForward benchmark on the ledger: The seven-item forward benchmark locked on 9 July 2026 entered the public ledger under its own page, with publication and entry dates both 9 July because it was locked contemporaneously. Two quantity items carry locked ranges and sit outside the Brier rule. Does not affect scoring.
  341. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-244Baseline is the most probable path.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: Baseline is the most probable path.
  342. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-236Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.65: Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.
  343. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-234Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.85: Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.
  344. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-227The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.
  345. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-220The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving…
  346. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-213The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.
  347. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-208Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.85: Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration…
  348. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-205The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional…
  349. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-202The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.
  350. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-200The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the…
  351. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-191The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.
  352. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-187broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.
  353. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-178Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.
  354. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-166Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.
  355. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-157The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.65: The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it…
  356. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-148Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.
  357. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-137Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not…
  358. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-133We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.
  359. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-130The attribution gap is durable.Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.85: The attribution gap is durable.
  360. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-104Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.65: Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows.
  361. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-083The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most…
  362. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-081Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year.
  363. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-079Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.
  364. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-078The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.85: The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a…
  365. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-068The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month…
  366. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-066A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.
  367. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-064The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not…
  368. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-063The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action.
  369. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-053Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two…
  370. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-040Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.
  371. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-031Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.
  372. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-030Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.
  373. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-024The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief.Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.65: The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief.
  374. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-022Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.
  375. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-015Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.65: Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal…
  376. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-013During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties…
  377. 2026-09-08Claim lockedCLM-2026-004Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.
  378. 2026-08-20Claim resolvedCLM-2026-213The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes…Defense & SecurityResolved TRUE: A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that the platform's deletion obligations on registered data brokers took effect on 1 August 2026.
  379. 2026-08-20Claim resolvedCLM-2026-187broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.Defense & SecurityResolved TRUE: A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that data brokers' obligations to process deletion requests through the platform at least once every 45 days took effect on 1 August 2026, with the agency ramping up oversight.
  380. 2026-08-06Correction issuedThe Last Move Is Not YoursNine correction items applied to a brief withdrawn before publication. (AIG-DEF-26-005, unpublished; the entry is on the Methodology page.)
  381. 2026-08-03Correction issuedAIG-MUN-26-001The September LetterEconomic & Financial MarketsKey Judgment 3 rested on a single news source and stated the payment rule wrongly.
  382. 2026-08-03Report revisedAIG-MUN-26-001The September LetterEconomic & Financial MarketsThe September Letter was reissued with a dated revision noted on the page.
  383. 2026-07-30Report publishedAIG-MUN-26-001The September LetterEconomic & Financial MarketsThe September Letter joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  384. 2026-07-16Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-004The Field Before the RFPPolitical Risk & GovernanceThe Field Before the RFP joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  385. 2026-07-14Claim resolvedCLM-2026-083The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a…Defense & SecurityResolved FALSE: A Defense Department Inspector General evaluation reported on 14 July 2026 put production near 36,000 rounds a month as of March 2026, against the 100,000 goal, and gave no date for reaching it; the Army accepted the findings.
  386. 2026-07-14Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-004The Footprint Before the ThreatDefense & SecurityThe Footprint Before the Threat joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  387. 2026-07-09Report publishedAIG-FWD-26-001The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1 joined the register.
  388. 2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-251Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.60: Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).
  389. 2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-250US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 3 to 5 percent YoY: US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).
  390. 2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-249EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at range 62 to 105 USD/bbl: EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.
  391. 2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-248No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is…Defense & SecurityLocked at p 0.96: No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through…
  392. 2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-247A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is…Political Risk & GovernanceLocked at p 0.25: A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.
  393. 2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-246The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01…Supply Chain & LogisticsLocked at p 0.15: The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk…
  394. 2026-07-09Claim lockedCLM-2026-245The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September…Economic & Financial MarketsLocked at p 0.25: The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent…
  395. 2026-07-08Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-003The Rare-Earth MidstreamMining & ManufacturingThe Rare-Earth Midstream joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  396. 2026-06-19Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-003Who Owns the Risk?Political Risk & GovernanceWho Owns the Risk? joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  397. 2026-06-19Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-003The Authority GapDefense & SecurityThe Authority Gap joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  398. 2026-06-19Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-002The Protection PremiumDefense & SecurityThe Protection Premium joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  399. 2026-06-16Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-002Venezuela After MaduroPolitical Risk & GovernanceVenezuela After Maduro joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  400. 2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-002The Critical Mineral Export Control StackMining & ManufacturingThe Critical Mineral Export Control Stack joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  401. 2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-MAR-26-002The Attribution GapSupply Chain & LogisticsThe Attribution Gap joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  402. 2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-GOV-26-001Resource Nationalism Wave 3.0Political Risk & GovernanceResource Nationalism Wave 3.0 joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.
  403. 2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-DEF-26-001The Western Munitions BottleneckDefense & SecurityThe Western Munitions Bottleneck joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.
  404. 2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-002The Tokenised Treasury MigrationEconomic & Financial MarketsThe Tokenised Treasury Migration joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  405. 2026-06-03Report publishedAIG-BLK-26-001Stablecoin Treasury LinkageEconomic & Financial MarketsStablecoin Treasury Linkage joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.
  406. 2026-06-01Report publishedAIG-MAR-26-001The Re-Priced CorridorSupply Chain & LogisticsThe Re-Priced Corridor joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.
  407. 2026-05-26Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-001Critical Minerals Under PressureMining & ManufacturingCritical Minerals Under Pressure joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
  408. 2026-05-26Report publishedAIG-INS-26-003The Ground Underneath the MapInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskThe Ground Underneath the Map joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
  409. 2026-05-26Report publishedAIG-INS-26-002The Uninsurable FrontierInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskThe Uninsurable Frontier joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.
  410. 2026-05-26Report publishedAIG-INS-26-001When the Models Met RealityInfrastructure & Catastrophe RiskWhen the Models Met Reality joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.