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   "desk": "markets",
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   "object_type": "claim",
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   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-267/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.15: The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before…",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with…",
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   "date": "2026-09-11",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-266",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-266/",
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   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-266:2026-09-11"
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   "date": "2026-09-11",
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   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
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   "type": "claim.locked",
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   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United…",
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  },
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   "date": "2026-09-11",
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   "object_type": "claim",
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   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an…",
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   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
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   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "claim.locked",
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   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-260/",
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   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
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   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-259",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-259/",
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   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and…",
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   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "claim.locked",
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   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
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   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "claim.locked",
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   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-257/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.60: Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as…",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
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   "date": "2026-09-10",
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   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
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   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "claim.locked",
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   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-255:2026-09-10"
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   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-254",
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   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-254:2026-09-10"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-253",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-253/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.10: A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the…",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-253:2026-09-10"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-252",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-252/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.08: The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9…",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-252:2026-09-10"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "series.threshold",
   "object": "SER-EWI-11",
   "url": "/data/series/ewi-11/",
   "line": "EWI#11 Active high-intensity conflict zones: RED to GRAY (reads No live source against No new zone escalation).",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "series",
   "title": "Active high-intensity conflict zones",
   "id": "series.threshold:SER-EWI-11:2026-09-10T11:03:57Z"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "series.threshold",
   "object": "SER-EWI-10",
   "url": "/data/series/ewi-10/",
   "line": "EWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): GRAY to GREEN (reads 4 designations against Baseline tempo).",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "series",
   "title": "Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day)",
   "id": "series.threshold:SER-EWI-10:2026-09-10T11:03:57Z"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "series.threshold",
   "object": "SER-EWI-09",
   "url": "/data/series/ewi-09/",
   "line": "EWI#9 Global conflict event density (7-day): GREEN to GRAY (reads No live source against Within 1σ of trailing mean).",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "series",
   "title": "Global conflict event density (7-day)",
   "id": "series.threshold:SER-EWI-09:2026-09-10T11:03:57Z"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "series.threshold",
   "object": "SER-EWI-05",
   "url": "/data/series/ewi-05/",
   "line": "EWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): AMBER to RED (reads $101.72 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "series",
   "title": "Brent crude spot ($/bbl)",
   "id": "series.threshold:SER-EWI-05:2026-09-10T11:03:57Z"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-10",
   "type": "series.threshold",
   "object": "SER-EWI-03",
   "url": "/data/series/ewi-03/",
   "line": "EWI#3 Strait of Hormuz transit volume: AMBER to RED (reads 4% of baseline against >90% of baseline).",
   "desk": "supply-chain",
   "object_type": "series",
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz transit volume",
   "id": "series.threshold:SER-EWI-03:2026-09-10T11:03:57Z"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-09",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/scorecard/",
   "line": "Scorecard reader opener: The Scorecard now opens by defining a claim, the probability, the four statuses and the Brier score for a reader who has never met the firm, before the first figure appears. Does not affect scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "Scorecard reader opener",
   "id": "brier.release:Scorecard reader opener:2026-09-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-09",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/intelligence/",
   "line": "Era 4, Phase 1: the registry and the Portal: The Intelligence Portal front, the registry of every report, claim, series, dataset and desk, the header band on every object page, and site search. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "Era 4, Phase 1: the registry and the Portal",
   "id": "brier.release:Era 4, Phase 1: the registry and the Portal:2026-09-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-09",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/data/",
   "line": "Era 4, Phase 2: series pages: One page per series the Dashboard watches, 44 today, with its chart, its source and tier, its package and citation line, and the claims that resolve against it. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "Era 4, Phase 2: series pages",
   "id": "brier.release:Era 4, Phase 2: series pages:2026-09-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-09",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/log/",
   "line": "Era 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the Log: One page per public claim, and the Log of every dated event on the record as a page, an RSS feed and a JSON file. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "Era 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the Log",
   "id": "brier.release:Era 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the Log:2026-09-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-09",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/brier/",
   "line": "Era 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portal: BRIER documented as a system: the instrument panel drawn from the same ledger as the Scorecard, how it works, and this changelog. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "Era 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portal",
   "id": "brier.release:Era 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portal:2026-09-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/methodology/#forward-claims",
   "line": "Forward-claim standard, first application: The forward-claim standard was written into Methodology chapter 08 and applied to the register: three tests for a claim to lock, wording and resolution rules, the void condition, and the band-to-probability table (HIGH 0.85, MODERATE 0.65, LOW 0.50 as first set). 37 claims locked from 19 dated publications. Affects scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "Forward-claim standard, first application",
   "id": "brier.release:Forward-claim standard, first application:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/methodology/#forward-claims",
   "line": "LOW band aligned to 0.55: The LOW band moved from 0.50 to 0.55 to match the default the firm's calibration engine has run on since June 2026. No locked claim carried a LOW band, so no score changed. Affects scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "LOW band aligned to 0.55",
   "id": "brier.release:LOW band aligned to 0.55:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-157/",
   "line": "Contested state: A claim whose outcome is contested between sources of equal standing stays open with the contest written into its note, for the founders to rule on; until then it adds nothing to the score. First applied to CLM-2026-157. Affects scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "Contested state",
   "id": "brier.release:Contested state:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "brier.release",
   "object": "BRIER",
   "url": "/research/forward-benchmark/",
   "line": "Forward benchmark on the ledger: The seven-item forward benchmark locked on 9 July 2026 entered the public ledger under its own page, with publication and entry dates both 9 July because it was locked contemporaneously. Two quantity items carry locked ranges and sit outside the Brier rule. Does not affect scoring.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": null,
   "title": "Forward benchmark on the ledger",
   "id": "brier.release:Forward benchmark on the ledger:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-244",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-244/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Baseline is the most probable path.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Baseline is the most probable path.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-244:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-236",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-236/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-236:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-234",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-234/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-234:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-227",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-227/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-227:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-220",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-220/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving…",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-220:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-213",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-213/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-213:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-208",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-208/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration…",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-208:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-205",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-205/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional…",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-205:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-202",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-202/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-202:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-200",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-200/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the…",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-200:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-191",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-191/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-191:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-187",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-187/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-187:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-178",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-178/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-178:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-166",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-166/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-166:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-157",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-157/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it…",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-157:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-148",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-148/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-148:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-137",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-137/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not…",
   "desk": "supply-chain",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-137:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-133",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-133/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.",
   "desk": "supply-chain",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-133:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-130",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-130/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: The attribution gap is durable.",
   "desk": "supply-chain",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The attribution gap is durable.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-130:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-104",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-104/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-104:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-083",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-083/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most…",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-083:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-081",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-081/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-081:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-079",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-079/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-079:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-078",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-078/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a…",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-078:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-068",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-068/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month…",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-068:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-066",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-066/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-066:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-064",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-064/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not…",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-064:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-063",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-063/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-063:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-053",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-053/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two…",
   "desk": "supply-chain",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-053:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-040",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-040/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.",
   "desk": "infrastructure",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-040:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-031",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-031/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-031:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-030",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-030/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-030:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-024",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-024/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-024:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-022",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-022/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.",
   "desk": "infrastructure",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-022:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-015",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-015/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.65: Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal…",
   "desk": "infrastructure",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-015:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-013",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-013/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties…",
   "desk": "infrastructure",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-013:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-08",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-004",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-004/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.",
   "desk": "infrastructure",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-004:2026-09-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-08-20",
   "type": "claim.resolved",
   "object": "CLM-2026-213",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-213/",
   "line": "Resolved TRUE: A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that the platform's deletion obligations on registered data brokers took effect on 1 August 2026.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes…",
   "id": "claim.resolved:CLM-2026-213:2026-08-20"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-08-20",
   "type": "claim.resolved",
   "object": "CLM-2026-187",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-187/",
   "line": "Resolved TRUE: A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that data brokers' obligations to process deletion requests through the platform at least once every 45 days took effect on 1 August 2026, with the agency ramping up oversight.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.",
   "id": "claim.resolved:CLM-2026-187:2026-08-20"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-08-06",
   "type": "correction.issued",
   "object": null,
   "url": "/methodology/#ch-10",
   "line": "Nine correction items applied to a brief withdrawn before publication. (AIG-DEF-26-005, unpublished; the entry is on the Methodology page.)",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Last Move Is Not Yours",
   "id": "correction.issued:None:2026-08-06"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-08-03",
   "type": "correction.issued",
   "object": "AIG-MUN-26-001",
   "url": "/research/september-letter/",
   "line": "Key Judgment 3 rested on a single news source and stated the payment rule wrongly.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The September Letter",
   "id": "correction.issued:AIG-MUN-26-001:2026-08-03"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-08-03",
   "type": "report.revised",
   "object": "AIG-MUN-26-001",
   "url": "/research/september-letter/",
   "line": "The September Letter was reissued with a dated revision noted on the page.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The September Letter",
   "id": "report.revised:AIG-MUN-26-001:2026-08-03"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-30",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-MUN-26-001",
   "url": "/research/september-letter/",
   "line": "The September Letter joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The September Letter",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-MUN-26-001:2026-07-30"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-16",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-GOV-26-004",
   "url": "/research/capture-field-read/",
   "line": "The Field Before the RFP joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Field Before the RFP",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-GOV-26-004:2026-07-16"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-14",
   "type": "claim.resolved",
   "object": "CLM-2026-083",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-083/",
   "line": "Resolved FALSE: A Defense Department Inspector General evaluation reported on 14 July 2026 put production near 36,000 rounds a month as of March 2026, against the 100,000 goal, and gave no date for reaching it; the Army accepted the findings.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a…",
   "id": "claim.resolved:CLM-2026-083:2026-07-14"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-14",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-DEF-26-004",
   "url": "/research/principal-digital-exposure/",
   "line": "The Footprint Before the Threat joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Footprint Before the Threat",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-DEF-26-004:2026-07-14"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-09",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-FWD-26-001",
   "url": "/research/forward-benchmark/",
   "line": "The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1 joined the register.",
   "desk": null,
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-FWD-26-001:2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-09",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-251",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-251/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.60: Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-251:2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-09",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-250",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-250/",
   "line": "Locked at range 3 to 5 percent YoY: US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-250:2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-09",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-249",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-249/",
   "line": "Locked at range 62 to 105 USD/bbl: EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-249:2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-09",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-248",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-248/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.96: No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through…",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-248:2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-09",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-247",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-247/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.25: A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-247:2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-09",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-246",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-246/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.15: The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk…",
   "desk": "supply-chain",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-246:2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-09",
   "type": "claim.locked",
   "object": "CLM-2026-245",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-245/",
   "line": "Locked at p 0.25: The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent…",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September…",
   "id": "claim.locked:CLM-2026-245:2026-07-09"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-08",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-MIN-26-003",
   "url": "/research/rare-earth-midstream/",
   "line": "The Rare-Earth Midstream joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Rare-Earth Midstream",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-MIN-26-003:2026-07-08"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-30",
   "type": "claim.opened",
   "object": "CLM-2026-157",
   "url": "/scorecard/clm-2026-157/",
   "line": "The window closed without a settling public source; the claim is open and adds nothing to the score. Held open as contested; the founders rule on it.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "claim",
   "title": "The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and…",
   "id": "claim.opened:CLM-2026-157:2026-06-30"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-19",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-GOV-26-003",
   "url": "/research/integrated-risk/",
   "line": "Who Owns the Risk? joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "Who Owns the Risk?",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-GOV-26-003:2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-19",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-DEF-26-003",
   "url": "/research/counter-uas/",
   "line": "The Authority Gap joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Authority Gap",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-DEF-26-003:2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-19",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-DEF-26-002",
   "url": "/research/principal-protection/",
   "line": "The Protection Premium joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Protection Premium",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-DEF-26-002:2026-06-19"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-16",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-GOV-26-002",
   "url": "/research/venezuela-after-maduro/",
   "line": "Venezuela After Maduro joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "Venezuela After Maduro",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-GOV-26-002:2026-06-16"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-03",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-MIN-26-002",
   "url": "/research/mineral-export-controls/",
   "line": "The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-MIN-26-002:2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-03",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-MAR-26-002",
   "url": "/research/subsea-vulnerability/",
   "line": "The Attribution Gap joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.",
   "desk": "supply-chain",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Attribution Gap",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-MAR-26-002:2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-03",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-GOV-26-001",
   "url": "/research/resource-nationalism/",
   "line": "Resource Nationalism Wave 3.0 joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.",
   "desk": "political-risk",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "Resource Nationalism Wave 3.0",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-GOV-26-001:2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-03",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-DEF-26-001",
   "url": "/research/munitions-bottleneck/",
   "line": "The Western Munitions Bottleneck joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.",
   "desk": "defense",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Western Munitions Bottleneck",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-DEF-26-001:2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-03",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-BLK-26-002",
   "url": "/research/rwa-tokenization/",
   "line": "The Tokenised Treasury Migration joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Tokenised Treasury Migration",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-BLK-26-002:2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-03",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-BLK-26-001",
   "url": "/research/stablecoin-treasuries/",
   "line": "Stablecoin Treasury Linkage joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.",
   "desk": "markets",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "Stablecoin Treasury Linkage",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-BLK-26-001:2026-06-03"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-01",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-MAR-26-001",
   "url": "/research/hormuz-002/",
   "line": "The Re-Priced Corridor joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.",
   "desk": "supply-chain",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Re-Priced Corridor",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-MAR-26-001:2026-06-01"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-26",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-MIN-26-001",
   "url": "/research/minerals-001/",
   "line": "Critical Minerals Under Pressure joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.",
   "desk": "manufacturing",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "Critical Minerals Under Pressure",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-MIN-26-001:2026-05-26"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-26",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-INS-26-003",
   "url": "/research/ground-004/",
   "line": "The Ground Underneath the Map joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.",
   "desk": "infrastructure",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Ground Underneath the Map",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-INS-26-003:2026-05-26"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-26",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-INS-26-002",
   "url": "/research/uninsurable-003/",
   "line": "The Uninsurable Frontier joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.",
   "desk": "infrastructure",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "The Uninsurable Frontier",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-INS-26-002:2026-05-26"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-26",
   "type": "report.published",
   "object": "AIG-INS-26-001",
   "url": "/research/cat-models-002/",
   "line": "When the Models Met Reality joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.",
   "desk": "infrastructure",
   "object_type": "report",
   "title": "When the Models Met Reality",
   "id": "report.published:AIG-INS-26-001:2026-05-26"
  }
 ]
}