CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.”
This claim comes from The September Letter, published on 30 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 30 September 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written30 Jul
Locked on the record8 Sep
Came true16 Oct
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2026-09-30Resolves by
TRUEOutcome · 2026-10-16
0.0225Legacy-track contribution, excluded from headline score
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 16 October 2026 by a public source at www.padctn.org: All 2026 independent MBOE appeals heard before September 1, 2026, will receive an independent MBOE Decision Notice in the mail by mid to late September.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF p.4, KJ-2 (restated in Section 01, PDF p.6: 'Every 2026 appeal heard before 1 September receives that notice in the mail by mid to late September; appeals heard after 1 September receive one within 60 days of the hearing date.')
Window as statedmid to late September (2026)
How it will be settledDavidson County Assessor of Property (padctn.org) formal-appeals page and local reporting on notice mailings
Where the probability came fromConfidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportHIGH
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familyseptember-letter; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.