CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“The President declares a major disaster for the State of Florida for Hurricane Isaias on or before 31 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Cyber and Disaster Exposure, November and December, published on 16 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 16 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.80 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 80 in 100. It resolves by 8 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked16 Oct
Resolves by8 Jan
Today
On the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.80Locked probability
2027-01-08Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Cyber and Disaster Exposure, November and December"
Window as statedup to and including 31 December 2026
How it will be settledFederal Register: YES if a notice of a presidential major disaster declaration for Florida, carrying a DR number and naming Hurricane Isaias, with a declaration date on or before 31 December 2026, is published in the Federal Register by 8 January 2027; an emergency declaration does not count; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familycyber-and-disaster-exposure-november-and-december; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-16, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.