CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.”
This claim comes from The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1, published on 9 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 July 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.25 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 25 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 1 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked9 Jul
Did not come true2 Oct
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
From the reportThe Forward Benchmark, Tranche 19 July 2026 · AIG-FWD-26-001
Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-245The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).25% · Did not come true · 16 Sep
- CLM-2026-246The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).15% · Did not come true · 2 Oct
- CLM-2026-248No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).96% · Came true · 15 Oct
- CLM-2026-249EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.a range · Did not come true · 7 Oct
- CLM-2026-250US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).a range · Came true · 16 Oct
- CLM-2026-251Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).60% · resolves in 13 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.25Locked probability
2026-10-01Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-10-02
0.0625Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 2 October 2026 by a public source at www.marketscreener.com: Negotiations had not produced an agreement by the deadline. Proposed disposition: FALSE.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeLocked in the firm's forward benchmark, tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709), item fwd-03, on 9 July 2026.
How it will be settledwhitehouse.gov and state.gov statements; AP or Reuters wire of record.
Where the probability came fromLocked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)
Record classbrier native
Claim familyiran-hormuz-2026-q3; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleholdout. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.