CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“Euro area headline HICP annual inflation for October 2026 is at or above 3.5% in the Eurostat flash estimate.”
This claim comes from The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.55 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 55 in 100. It resolves by 4 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked11 Oct
Resolves by4 Nov
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportThe Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End11 October 2026 · AIG-BLK-26-007Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-358The ECB keeps the deposit facility rate at 2.50% at its monetary policy meeting of 29 October 2026.85% · resolves in 17 d
- CLM-2026-359The ECB deposit facility rate is at or above 2.75% after the monetary policy meeting of 17 December 2026.70% · resolves in 66 d
- CLM-2026-360The Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4.00% or higher at the decision of 5 November 2026.65% · resolves in 24 d
- CLM-2026-361The Bank of Japan keeps its uncollateralized overnight call rate target at around 1.25% at the Monetary Policy Meeting ending 30 October 2026.75% · resolves in 18 d
- CLM-2026-362The one-year loan prime rate is 3.0% in the December 2026 fixing.85% · resolves in 70 d
- CLM-2026-364Euro area core HICP annual inflation, the index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, for October 2026 is at or below 2.7% in the Eurostat flash estimate.85% · resolves in 23 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.55Locked probability
2026-11-04Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End"
Window as statedup to and including 4 November 2026
How it will be settledEurostat: YES if the all-items HICP annual rate for the euro area for October 2026 in the flash estimate is at or above 3.5%, as first published, whatever the method.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-other-central-banks-ecb-boe-boj-and-the-pboc-at-year-end; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.