CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.”
This claim comes from The First Warsh Hike?, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.40 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 40 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 16 September 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked11 Sep
Came true16 Sep
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportThe First Warsh Hike?11 September 2026 · AIG-ECO-26-002Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-279The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.a range · Came true · 16 Sep
- CLM-2026-280At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026.65% · Did not come true · 16 Sep
- CLM-2026-281The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.a range · Did not come true · 16 Sep
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.40Locked probability
2026-09-16Resolves by
TRUEOutcome · 2026-09-16
0.3600Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 16 September 2026 by a public source at www.federalreserve.gov: target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0034
Window as stated2026-09-16
How it will be settledRead the FOMC statement published on 16 September 2026. Resolve TRUE if the statement announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is 4.00 percent (written by the Board as 3-3/4 to 4 percent). Resolve FALSE for any other upper bound, including 3.75 percent (an unchanged range) and 4.25 percent (an increase of 50 basis points). If no statement is published on 16 September 2026, resolve on the first FOMC statement published thereafter that concludes the meeting of 15 to 16 September 2026.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0034
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-first-warsh-hike; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.