CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.”
This claim comes from The First Warsh Hike?, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.40 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 40 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 16 September 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.40Locked probability
2026-09-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0034
Window as stated2026-09-16
How it will be settledRead the FOMC statement published on 16 September 2026. Resolve TRUE if the statement announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is 4.00 percent (written by the Board as 3-3/4 to 4 percent). Resolve FALSE for any other upper bound, including 3.75 percent (an unchanged range) and 4.25 percent (an increase of 50 basis points). If no statement is published on 16 September 2026, resolve on the first FOMC statement published thereafter that concludes the meeting of 15 to 16 September 2026.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0034
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-first-warsh-hike; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.