CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“The total number of entries in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date added on or before 31 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Cyber and Disaster Exposure, November and December, published on 16 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 16 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 1790 to 1840 entries with a central estimate of 1815; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 4 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked16 Oct
Resolves by4 Jan
Today
On the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
1790 to 1840 entries (central 1815)Locked range
2027-01-04Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Cyber and Disaster Exposure, November and December"
Window as statedup to and including 31 December 2026
How it will be settledCISA KEV catalog: the count of catalog entries whose dateAdded is on or before 2026-12-31, read from the catalog as published on 4 January 2027, whatever the method.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familycyber-and-disaster-exposure-november-and-december; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-16, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.