CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single reporting day between 1 and 10 October 2026 inclusive.”
This claim comes from Three Percent on Paper, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.12 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 12 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 11 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked11 Sep
Did not come true10 Oct
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.12Locked probability
2026-10-11Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-10-10
0.0144Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 10 October 2026 by a public source at www.mnd.gov.tw: 23 PLA aircraft detected, of which 16 crossed the median line and entered the northern, central and southwestern airspace
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-GOV-26-006, forward tranche POL-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0022
Window as stated2026-10-11
How it will be settledYES if at least one ministry report published from 1 through 10 October states that 30 or more PLA aircraft sorties entered Taiwan's ADIZ. Use the ADIZ-entry count, not total sorties; exactly 30 is YES. Assign each report to its publication date. Reports of no PLA aircraft count as zero. Separate same-day exercise releases do not substitute for the full daily report. If either the official page or named mirror supplies a report, use its published figure without reconstructing third-party counts. An unavailable or count-free report is unresolvable and the claim is scored on the other resolvable days. If all ten days remain unresolvable at 23:59 UTC+8 on 11 October, the claim is VOID rather than NO.
Where the probability came fromExplicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-006; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0022
Record classbrier native
Claim familytaiwan-adiz-october-2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.