CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS

“The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.”

This claim comes from The First Warsh Hike?, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm locked a range of 3.6 to 4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2027 with a central estimate of 3.9; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 16 September 2026, only against a dated public source.

This call, in time

Written and locked11 Sep

Did not come true16 Sep

Today

On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon

From the reportThe First Warsh Hike?11 September 2026 · AIG-ECO-26-002

Its sibling calls

Status

Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.

resolvedStatus

3.6 to 4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2027 (central 3.9)Locked range

2026-09-16Resolves by

FALSEOutcome · 2026-09-16

Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 16 September 2026 by a public source at www.federalreserve.gov: Table 1 memo, projected appropriate policy path, federal funds rate median, 2027 column: 4.1 percent

Extraction and settlement

Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.

Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C4; engine record AIG-FWD-0037

Window as stated2026-09-16

How it will be settledRead the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2027, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation from the dot chart is permitted. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.6 to 4.0 percent and a FAIL otherwise; it FAILS on any printed value at or below 3.5 percent and on any printed value at or above 4.1 percent. The point estimate of 3.9 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so the interval is the four achievable values 3.6, 3.8, 3.9 and 4.0 percent, not a continuum.

Where the probability came fromLocked interval approved with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0037; outside the Brier rule

Record classbrier native

Claim familythe-first-warsh-hike; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.

Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.

Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard

The series it resolves against

The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.

This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.