CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“Net customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are more than USD 15 billion.”
This claim comes from The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End, published on 14 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 14 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.70 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 70 in 100. It resolves by 11 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked14 Oct
Resolves by11 Dec
Today
On the Supply Chain & Logistics Horizon
From the reportThe Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End14 October 2026 · AIG-SCL-26-007Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-423The seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for October 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report, as first published, whatever the method, is about USD 125 billion.a range · resolves in 44 d
- CLM-2026-424The seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for November 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report is more than USD 115 billion.65% · resolves in 75 d
- CLM-2026-425The US goods trade deficit with China for October 2026, Census basis, in the full trade release is less than USD 20.0 billion.75% · resolves in 55 d
- CLM-2026-427Gross customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are more than USD 22 billion.80% · resolves in 58 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.70Locked probability
2026-12-11Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End"
Window as statedfor the month of November 2026, as published on or before 11 December 2026
How it will be settledMonthly Treasury Statement: YES if the customs duties line, net of refunds, for the month of November 2026 in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 is more than USD 15.0 billion, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-tariff-ledger-trade-gaps-and-customs-receipts-to-year; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-14, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.