https://aegeanintel.com/log/Everything the firm published, locked, resolved, corrected and refreshed, in order.en-usFri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://aegeanintel.com/research/panamas-second-drought/report.published:AIG-SCL-26-001:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedPanama's Second Drought joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/sixty-votes-or-bust/report.published:AIG-RIB-26-001:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedSixty Votes, One Honest Unknown joined the Rapid Intel Brief archive and the Economic & Financial Markets desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/forty-seven-days-to-november-10/report.published:AIG-MIN-26-004:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedForty-Seven Days to November 10 joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/three-percent-on-paper/report.published:AIG-GOV-26-006:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThree Percent on Paper joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/after-the-duma/report.published:AIG-GOV-26-005:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedAfter the Duma joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/the-first-warsh-hike/report.published:AIG-ECO-26-002:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe First Warsh Hike? joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/hiking-into-a-supply-shock/report.published:AIG-ECO-26-001:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedHiking Into a Supply Shock joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/the-lead-agency-rule/report.published:AIG-DEF-26-008:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Lead Agency Rule joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-284/claim.locked:CLM-2026-284:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at range 45 to 48 feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft: The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-283/claim.locked:CLM-2026-283:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.20: The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-282/claim.locked:CLM-2026-282:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.55: A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-281/claim.locked:CLM-2026-281:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at range 3.6 to 4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2027: The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-280/claim.locked:CLM-2026-280:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-279/claim.locked:CLM-2026-279:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at range 3.8 to 4.4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2026: The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-278/claim.locked:CLM-2026-278:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.40: The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-277/claim.locked:CLM-2026-277:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.75: The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-276/claim.locked:CLM-2026-276:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.55: The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-275/claim.locked:CLM-2026-275:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.20: At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-274/claim.locked:CLM-2026-274:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.78: The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-273/claim.locked:CLM-2026-273:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.68: The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-272/claim.locked:CLM-2026-272:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.70: The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-271/claim.locked:CLM-2026-271:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.38: DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-270/claim.locked:CLM-2026-270:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.35: The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-269/claim.locked:CLM-2026-269:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.38: September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-268/claim.locked:CLM-2026-268:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.62: August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-267/claim.locked:CLM-2026-267:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.15: The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-266/claim.locked:CLM-2026-266:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.12: The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-265/claim.locked:CLM-2026-265:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.55: Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-264/claim.locked:CLM-2026-264:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.80: The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-263/claim.locked:CLM-2026-263:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.92: MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-262/claim.locked:CLM-2026-262:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.25: MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and…https://aegeanintel.com/data/#pkg-ofac-deltadataset.rebuilt:PKG-ofac-delta:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000dataset.rebuiltOFAC SDN delta series was rebuilt: 4 rows, version 2026-09-11.https://aegeanintel.com/data/#pkg-maritime-chokepointsdataset.rebuilt:PKG-maritime-chokepoints:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000dataset.rebuiltMaritime chokepoint transits was rebuilt: 22,400 rows, version 2026-09-11.https://aegeanintel.com/data/#pkg-macro-and-curvedataset.rebuilt:PKG-macro-and-curve:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000dataset.rebuiltMacro, curve and market history was rebuilt: 24,938 rows, version 2026-09-11.https://aegeanintel.com/data/#pkg-claims-ledgerdataset.rebuilt:PKG-claims-ledger:2026-09-11Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000dataset.rebuiltThe public claim ledger was rebuilt: 60 rows, version 2026-09-11.https://aegeanintel.com/brier/integrity/brier.release:Native score and integrity record:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseNative score and integrity record: The headline score now includes only BRIER-native claims locked no later than publication. Legacy prospective and retrospective entries remain public on separate tracks. The instrument now publishes ledger and claim fingerprints, content-addressed snapshots, selection counts, learning roles and conservative claim families under Record integrity. Affects scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/research/feedstock-before-firepower/report.published:AIG-DEF-26-007:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedFeedstock Before Firepower joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/rearmament-ledger/report.published:AIG-DEF-26-006:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Rearmament Ledger joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-261/claim.locked:CLM-2026-261:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.12: A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-260/claim.locked:CLM-2026-260:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at range 5 to 8.5 United States dollars, billions, nominal, contract obligations: Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-259/claim.locked:CLM-2026-259:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.15: The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-258/claim.locked:CLM-2026-258:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.18: The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-257/claim.locked:CLM-2026-257:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.60: Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-256/claim.locked:CLM-2026-256:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.10: Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-255/claim.locked:CLM-2026-255:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.40: The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-254/claim.locked:CLM-2026-254:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.50: United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-253/claim.locked:CLM-2026-253:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.10: A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-252/claim.locked:CLM-2026-252:2026-09-10Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.08: The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9…https://aegeanintel.com/data/series/ewi-11/series.threshold:SER-EWI-11:2026-09-10T11:03:57ZThu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000series.thresholdEWI#11 Active high-intensity conflict zones: RED to GRAY (reads No live source against No new zone escalation).https://aegeanintel.com/data/series/ewi-10/series.threshold:SER-EWI-10:2026-09-10T11:03:57ZThu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000series.thresholdEWI#10 Sanctions designations (rolling 30-day): GRAY to GREEN (reads 4 designations against Baseline tempo).https://aegeanintel.com/data/series/ewi-09/series.threshold:SER-EWI-09:2026-09-10T11:03:57ZThu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000series.thresholdEWI#9 Global conflict event density (7-day): GREEN to GRAY (reads No live source against Within 1σ of trailing mean).https://aegeanintel.com/data/series/ewi-05/series.threshold:SER-EWI-05:2026-09-10T11:03:57ZThu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000series.thresholdEWI#5 Brent crude spot ($/bbl): AMBER to RED (reads $101.72 against $60–$90 (baseline band)).https://aegeanintel.com/data/series/ewi-03/series.threshold:SER-EWI-03:2026-09-10T11:03:57ZThu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000series.thresholdEWI#3 Strait of Hormuz transit volume: AMBER to RED (reads 4% of baseline against >90% of baseline).https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/brier.release:Scorecard reader opener:2026-09-09Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseScorecard reader opener: The Scorecard now opens by defining a claim, the probability, the four statuses and the Brier score for a reader who has never met the firm, before the first figure appears. Does not affect scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/intelligence/brier.release:Era 4, Phase 1: the registry and the Portal:2026-09-09Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseEra 4, Phase 1: the registry and the Portal: The Intelligence Portal front, the registry of every report, claim, series, dataset and desk, the header band on every object page, and site search. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/data/brier.release:Era 4, Phase 2: series pages:2026-09-09Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseEra 4, Phase 2: series pages: One page per series the Dashboard watches, 44 today, with its chart, its source and tier, its package and citation line, and the claims that resolve against it. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/log/brier.release:Era 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the Log:2026-09-09Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseEra 4, Phase 3: claim pages and the Log: One page per public claim, and the Log of every dated event on the record as a page, an RSS feed and a JSON file. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/brier/brier.release:Era 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portal:2026-09-09Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseEra 4, Phase 4: the BRIER portal: BRIER documented as a system: the instrument panel drawn from the same ledger as the Scorecard, how it works, and this changelog. The ledger is untouched. Does not affect scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/methodology/#forward-claimsbrier.release:Forward-claim standard, first application:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseForward-claim standard, first application: The forward-claim standard was written into Methodology chapter 08 and applied to the register: three tests for a claim to lock, wording and resolution rules, the void condition, and the band-to-probability table (HIGH 0.85, MODERATE 0.65, LOW 0.50 as first set). 37 claims locked from 19 dated publications. Affects scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/methodology/#forward-claimsbrier.release:LOW band aligned to 0.55:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseLOW band aligned to 0.55: The LOW band moved from 0.50 to 0.55 to match the default the firm's calibration engine has run on since June 2026. No locked claim carried a LOW band, so no score changed. Affects scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-157/brier.release:Contested state:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseContested state: A claim whose outcome is contested between sources of equal standing stays open with the contest written into its note, for the founders to rule on; until then it adds nothing to the score. First applied to CLM-2026-157. Affects scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/research/forward-benchmark/brier.release:Forward benchmark on the ledger:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000brier.releaseForward benchmark on the ledger: The seven-item forward benchmark locked on 9 July 2026 entered the public ledger under its own page, with publication and entry dates both 9 July because it was locked contemporaneously. Two quantity items carry locked ranges and sit outside the Brier rule. Does not affect scoring.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-244/claim.locked:CLM-2026-244:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Baseline is the most probable path.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-236/claim.locked:CLM-2026-236:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-234/claim.locked:CLM-2026-234:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-227/claim.locked:CLM-2026-227:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-220/claim.locked:CLM-2026-220:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-213/claim.locked:CLM-2026-213:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-208/claim.locked:CLM-2026-208:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-205/claim.locked:CLM-2026-205:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-202/claim.locked:CLM-2026-202:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-200/claim.locked:CLM-2026-200:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-191/claim.locked:CLM-2026-191:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-187/claim.locked:CLM-2026-187:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-178/claim.locked:CLM-2026-178:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-166/claim.locked:CLM-2026-166:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-157/claim.locked:CLM-2026-157:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-148/claim.locked:CLM-2026-148:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-137/claim.locked:CLM-2026-137:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-133/claim.locked:CLM-2026-133:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-130/claim.locked:CLM-2026-130:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: The attribution gap is durable.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-104/claim.locked:CLM-2026-104:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-083/claim.locked:CLM-2026-083:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-081/claim.locked:CLM-2026-081:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-079/claim.locked:CLM-2026-079:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-078/claim.locked:CLM-2026-078:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-068/claim.locked:CLM-2026-068:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-066/claim.locked:CLM-2026-066:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-064/claim.locked:CLM-2026-064:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-063/claim.locked:CLM-2026-063:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-053/claim.locked:CLM-2026-053:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-040/claim.locked:CLM-2026-040:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-031/claim.locked:CLM-2026-031:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-030/claim.locked:CLM-2026-030:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-024/claim.locked:CLM-2026-024:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-022/claim.locked:CLM-2026-022:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-015/claim.locked:CLM-2026-015:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.65: Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-013/claim.locked:CLM-2026-013:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-004/claim.locked:CLM-2026-004:2026-09-08Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.85: Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-213/claim.resolved:CLM-2026-213:2026-08-20Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.resolvedResolved TRUE: A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that the platform's deletion obligations on registered data brokers took effect on 1 August 2026.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-187/claim.resolved:CLM-2026-187:2026-08-20Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.resolvedResolved TRUE: A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that data brokers' obligations to process deletion requests through the platform at least once every 45 days took effect on 1 August 2026, with the agency ramping up oversight.https://aegeanintel.com/methodology/#ch-10correction.issued:None:2026-08-06Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000correction.issuedNine correction items applied to a brief withdrawn before publication. (AIG-DEF-26-005, unpublished; the entry is on the Methodology page.)https://aegeanintel.com/research/september-letter/correction.issued:AIG-MUN-26-001:2026-08-03Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000correction.issuedKey Judgment 3 rested on a single news source and stated the payment rule wrongly.https://aegeanintel.com/research/september-letter/report.revised:AIG-MUN-26-001:2026-08-03Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.revisedThe September Letter was reissued with a dated revision noted on the page.https://aegeanintel.com/research/september-letter/report.published:AIG-MUN-26-001:2026-07-30Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe September Letter joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/capture-field-read/report.published:AIG-GOV-26-004:2026-07-16Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Field Before the RFP joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-083/claim.resolved:CLM-2026-083:2026-07-14Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.resolvedResolved FALSE: A Defense Department Inspector General evaluation reported on 14 July 2026 put production near 36,000 rounds a month as of March 2026, against the 100,000 goal, and gave no date for reaching it; the Army accepted the findings.https://aegeanintel.com/research/principal-digital-exposure/report.published:AIG-DEF-26-004:2026-07-14Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Footprint Before the Threat joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/forward-benchmark/report.published:AIG-FWD-26-001:2026-07-09Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1 joined the register.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-251/claim.locked:CLM-2026-251:2026-07-09Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.60: Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-250/claim.locked:CLM-2026-250:2026-07-09Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at range 3 to 5 percent YoY: US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-249/claim.locked:CLM-2026-249:2026-07-09Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at range 62 to 105 USD/bbl: EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-248/claim.locked:CLM-2026-248:2026-07-09Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.96: No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-247/claim.locked:CLM-2026-247:2026-07-09Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.25: A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-246/claim.locked:CLM-2026-246:2026-07-09Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.15: The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk…https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-245/claim.locked:CLM-2026-245:2026-07-09Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.lockedLocked at p 0.25: The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent…https://aegeanintel.com/research/rare-earth-midstream/report.published:AIG-MIN-26-003:2026-07-08Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Rare-Earth Midstream joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.https://aegeanintel.com/scorecard/clm-2026-157/claim.opened:CLM-2026-157:2026-06-30Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000claim.openedThe window closed without a settling public source; the claim is open and adds nothing to the score. Held open as contested; the founders rule on it.https://aegeanintel.com/research/integrated-risk/report.published:AIG-GOV-26-003:2026-06-19Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedWho Owns the Risk? joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/counter-uas/report.published:AIG-DEF-26-003:2026-06-19Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Authority Gap joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/principal-protection/report.published:AIG-DEF-26-002:2026-06-19Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Protection Premium joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/venezuela-after-maduro/report.published:AIG-GOV-26-002:2026-06-16Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedVenezuela After Maduro joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/mineral-export-controls/report.published:AIG-MIN-26-002:2026-06-03Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Critical Mineral Export Control Stack joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/subsea-vulnerability/report.published:AIG-MAR-26-002:2026-06-03Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Attribution Gap joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/resource-nationalism/report.published:AIG-GOV-26-001:2026-06-03Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedResource Nationalism Wave 3.0 joined the register on the Political Risk & Governance desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/munitions-bottleneck/report.published:AIG-DEF-26-001:2026-06-03Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Western Munitions Bottleneck joined the register on the Defense & Security desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/rwa-tokenization/report.published:AIG-BLK-26-002:2026-06-03Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Tokenised Treasury Migration joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/stablecoin-treasuries/report.published:AIG-BLK-26-001:2026-06-03Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedStablecoin Treasury Linkage joined the register on the Economic & Financial Markets desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/hormuz-002/report.published:AIG-MAR-26-001:2026-06-01Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Re-Priced Corridor joined the register on the Supply Chain & Logistics desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/minerals-001/report.published:AIG-MIN-26-001:2026-05-26Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedCritical Minerals Under Pressure joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/ground-004/report.published:AIG-INS-26-003:2026-05-26Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Ground Underneath the Map joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/uninsurable-003/report.published:AIG-INS-26-002:2026-05-26Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedThe Uninsurable Frontier joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.https://aegeanintel.com/research/cat-models-002/report.published:AIG-INS-26-001:2026-05-26Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000report.publishedWhen the Models Met Reality joined the register on the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk desk.