CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“The RTO clearing price of PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year equals that auction's price cap.”
This claim comes from Winter Grid Stress: PJM, NERC and the Price of Cold, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.70 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 70 in 100. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.70Locked probability
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Winter Grid Stress: PJM, NERC and the Price of Cold"
Window as statedup to and including 31 Dec 2026
How it will be settledUtility Dive: YES if Utility Dive reports that the auction's RTO-wide clearing price was at the price cap; NO if it reports a price below the cap or if no results are published by 31 December 2026.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familywinter-grid-stress-pjm-nerc-and-the-price-of-cold; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.