| CLM-2026-083 | The 100,000 target will be reached on the mid-2026 revised timeline barring a feedstock disruption; any further slippage will be the most visible public signal of the underlying NC and energetics pathology.The Western Munitions Bottleneck | Defense & Security | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-06-30 | Resolved | FALSE A Defense Department Inspector General evaluation reported on 14 July 2026 put production near 36,000 rounds a month as of March 2026, against the 100,000 goal, and gave no date for reaching it; the Army accepted the findings.2026-07-14 | See claim record | Legacy retrospective |
| CLM-2026-157 | The SAFER SKIES Act (December 2025) reauthorizes federal authority to 2031 and creates a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around June 2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.The Authority Gap | Defense & Security | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-06-30 | Resolved | FALSE The interim final rule is effective July 1, 2026.2026-09-16 | See claim record | Legacy retrospective |
| CLM-2026-187 | broker compliance becomes mandatory on a 45-day cycle from August 1, 2026.The Protection Premium | Defense & Security | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-08-01 | Resolved | TRUE A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that data brokers' obligations to process deletion requests through the platform at least once every 45 days took effect on 1 August 2026, with the agency ramping up oversight.2026-08-20 | See claim record | Legacy retrospective |
| CLM-2026-213 | The strongest deletion instrument yet built, California's DROP, becomes enforceable against brokers on August 1, 2026.The Footprint Before the Threat | Defense & Security | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-08-01 | Resolved | TRUE A 20 August 2026 practitioner note records that the platform's deletion obligations on registered data brokers took effect on 1 August 2026.2026-08-20 | See claim record | Legacy retrospective |
| CLM-2026-278 | The upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 is 4.00 percent.The First Warsh Hike? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.40 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-16 | Resolved | TRUE target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent2026-09-16 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC statement of record and the accompanying implementation note published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026 | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-279 | The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.The First Warsh Hike? | Economic & Financial Markets | 3.8 to 4.4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2026 (central 4.1) | 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-16 | Resolved | TRUE Table 1 memo, projected appropriate policy path, federal funds rate median, 2026 column: 4.1 percent2026-09-16 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026 projection materials, Table 1, row 'Federal funds rate', column '2026', median value, published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026 | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-280 | At least two members of the Federal Open Market Committee are recorded as voting against the monetary policy action in the FOMC statement of 16 September 2026.The First Warsh Hike? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.65 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-16 | Resolved | FALSE by a 12 - 0 vote2026-09-16 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC statement of record published on 16 September 2026, the paragraph beginning 'Voting for the monetary policy action were' and the sentence naming those voting against | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-281 | The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2027, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.The First Warsh Hike? | Economic & Financial Markets | 3.6 to 4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2027 (central 3.9) | 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-16 | Resolved | FALSE Table 1 memo, projected appropriate policy path, federal funds rate median, 2027 column: 4.1 percent2026-09-16 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026 projection materials, Table 1, row 'Federal funds rate', column '2027', median value, published at federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026 | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-245 | The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1 | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.25 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-09-18 | Resolved | FALSE target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent2026-09-16 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-234 | Notices for hearings before 1 September arrive mid to late September.The September Letter | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-30 | Resolved | TRUE All 2026 independent MBOE appeals heard before September 1, 2026, will receive an independent MBOE Decision Notice in the mail by mid to late September.2026-10-16 | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-268 | August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.Hiking Into a Supply Shock | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.62 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-30 | Resolved | FALSE Core PCE inflation was 3.0% year over year. Proposed disposition: FALSE.2026-10-02 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-285 | The EEX EU allowance primary market spot auction clearing price for the EU common auction held on 30 September 2026, or for the last EU common auction held before that date if none is held on it, will be EUR 85.00 per tonne of carbon dioxide, within an interval of EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 per tonne.70% and Counting | Supply Chain & Logistics | 76 to 94 EUR per tonne CO2 (central 85) | 2026-09-14 | 2026-09-30 | Resolved | TRUE The 29 September EU common auction cleared at EUR 84.87 per tonne2026-10-02 | European Energy Exchange, EU allowance primary market auction results, and the EEX emission spot primary market auction report for 2026 (https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/environmental-markets/eua-primary-auction-spot-download) | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-246 | The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1Resolves against the series Strait of Hormuz | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.15 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-10-01 | Resolved | FALSE The evidence shows continuing attacks, protected transit, and materially depressed traffic.2026-10-02 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-247 | A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1 | Political Risk & Governance | 0.25 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-10-01 | Resolved | FALSE Negotiations had not produced an agreement by the deadline. Proposed disposition: FALSE.2026-10-02 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-282 | A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September 2026.Sixty Votes, One Honest Unknown | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.55 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-01 | Resolved | FALSE The cloture motion received 49 yeas, below the required 60. Proposed disposition: FALSE.2026-10-02 | Congressional Record on GovInfo | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-269 | September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.Hiking Into a Supply Shock | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.38 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-02 | Resolved | TRUE Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in September.2026-10-05 | BLS Employment Situation | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-254 | United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.The Rearmament Ledger | Defense & Security | 0.50 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-10-05 | Resolved | TRUE U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed the orderly departure of U.S. forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base, Sept. 30, marking the end of the Operation Inherent Resolve mission in Iraq.2026-10-05 | https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/ and https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/ | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-264 | The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its official determination of the results of the 18 to 20 September 2026 election.After the Duma | Political Risk & Governance | 0.80 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-05 | Resolved | TRUE "Единая Россия" получает 349 мандатов в Думе. По итогам выборов в Госдуму "Единая Россия" получает 349 мандатов, КПРФ - 37, ЛДПР - 23, "Новые люди" - 19, "Справедливая Россия" - 17 мандатов... 140 по федеральному округу и 209 - по одномандатным округам.2026-10-05 | cikrf.ru; Interfax Russian-language reporting; Rossiyskaya Gazeta; or two independent allowlisted outlets, in that order | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-249 | EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1Resolves against the series Brent Crude | Economic & Financial Markets | 62 to 105 USD/bbl (central 80) | 2026-07-09 | 2026-10-06 | Resolved | FALSE Brent crude oil price on October 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? $ 102.252026-10-07 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-291 | The October 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US LNG gross exports for 2027 at or above 18.6 Bcf/d.Rise of North American Energy Dominance | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.60 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-10-06 | Resolved | TRUE U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day): 11.9 | 15.1 | 17.6 | 18.6 [2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027]2026-10-06 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-252 | The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.The Rearmament Ledger | Defense & Security | 0.08 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-10-09 | Resolved | FALSE Roll Call Votes 119th Congress - 2nd Session (2026)2026-10-09 | https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm (roll call votes of the 119th Congress, 2nd session) | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-253 | A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.The Rearmament Ledger | Defense & Security | 0.10 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-10-09 | Resolved | FALSE The Senate will return for business on Monday, November 9th at 3:00 p.m. At that time, following any Leader remarks, the Senate will resume consideration of the motion to proceed to H.R.2347 Survivor Justice Tax Prevention Act; the legislative vehicle for the permitting reform bill.2026-10-09 | https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm and https://www.congress.gov (joint resolutions of disapproval under 22 U.S.C. 2776) | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-265 | Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in a meeting all three governments publicly acknowledge as trilateral, on or before 9 October 2026.After the Duma | Political Risk & Governance | 0.55 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-09 | Resolved | FALSE Ukraine ready for US-backed talks with Russia: Zelenskyy ... the US is pushing for "technical-level talks by the end of October" ... Kyiv is open to the UAE or "another country proposed by the American side."2026-10-09 | kremlin.ru or mid.ru; president.gov.ua or mfa.gov.ua; and whitehouse.gov or an official White House or State Department readout carried in the Congressional Record or Federal Register | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-271 | DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.Hiking Into a Supply Shock | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.38 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-09 | Resolved | FALSE {"date":"1791504000", ... "totalCirculatingUSD":{"peggedUSD":311611497263, ... "peggedEUR":823585998, ... "peggedRUB":551057812, ...}} (timestamp 1791504000 = 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC; peggedUSD ≈ $311.61bn; all 28 peg types summed ≈ $313.31bn)2026-10-10 | DefiLlama stablecoin charts API | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-287 | The Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent for the 270,000 mt Middle East Gulf to China route, as published in the Baltic Exchange weekly tanker report dated 9 October 2026, will be $690,000 per day, within an interval of $320,000 to $1,020,000 per day.$700,000 a Day | Supply Chain & Logistics | 320000 to 1.02e+06 US dollars per day, round-trip time charter equivalent for the standard Baltic VLCC (central 690000) | 2026-09-14 | 2026-10-09 | Resolved | FALSE TD3C (270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China) climbed 115 points to WS1,318.75, which gives a daily round-trip TCE of $1,412,594 for the standard Baltic VLCC2026-10-10 | Baltic Exchange, weekly tanker report (Friday-dated), free weekly roundup page, https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/WeeklyRoundup/tanker.html | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-262 | MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.Forty-Seven Days to November 10 | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.25 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-10 | Resolved | FALSE Official policy shifts or extensions regarding major trade suspensions like Announcement No. 70 are typically synchronized with higher-level diplomatic meetings, or timed right before the actual expiration date (November 10, 2026). Furthermore, today is a Saturday, and both MOFCOM and White House press offices rarely drop major, non-emergency bilateral trade announcements over the weekend.2026-10-10 | MOFCOM announcements index, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2026/index.html, or a White House fact sheet published on whitehouse.gov | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-266 | The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single reporting day between 1 and 10 October 2026 inclusive.Three Percent on Paper | Political Risk & Governance | 0.12 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-11 | Resolved | FALSE 23 PLA aircraft detected, of which 16 crossed the median line and entered the northern, central and southwestern airspace2026-10-10 | Republic of China Ministry of National Defense daily PLA-activity reports at https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en/news/plaact/, with https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2026/ as the named mirror | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-272 | The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.Hiking Into a Supply Shock | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.70 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-14 | Resolved | FALSE For the October 15 to November 13, 2026 period: "The Desk plans to conduct approximately $14.6 billion in reinvestment purchases and no reserve management purchases"2026-10-15 | New York Fed Treasury Securities Operational Details | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-307 | The US CPI-U all items index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or above 3.4 percent.Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.60 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-14 | Resolved | TRUE Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.2026-10-14 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-308 | The US CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for September 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.85 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-14 | Resolved | TRUE The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.4-percent increase over the 12 months ending August.2026-10-14 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-248 | No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1 | Defense & Security | 0.96 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-10-15 | Resolved | TRUE China sends military aircraft, coast guard ships and other vessels around Taiwan on a near-daily basis and periodically conducts large-scale military exercises. Taiwan also regularly holds military drills, including its annual Han Kuang exercises.2026-10-15 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-400 | Euro area industrial production for August 2026 is higher than in July.Europe's Industrial Recession Test | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-15 | Resolved | FALSE In August 2026, compared with July 2026, seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 0.5% in the euro area2026-10-15 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-250 | US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1Resolves against the series CPI (All Urban) | Economic & Financial Markets | 3 to 5 percent YoY (central 3.9) | 2026-07-09 | 2026-10-16 | Resolved | TRUE The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.2026-10-16 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-342 | Fed manufacturing output for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.60 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-10-16 | Resolved | TRUE Manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent in September and increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the third quarter.2026-10-16 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-343 | Total Fed industrial production for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.55 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-10-16 | Resolved | TRUE Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in September after edging up 0.1 percent in August.2026-10-16 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-336 | US Gulf of Mexico shut-in oil production falls below 5% of output by 23 October 2026.The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.60 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-23 | Resolved | TRUE On 14 October the MMA said there were “no known storm impacts preventing resumption of production,” and we found no published Isaias damage list.2026-10-28 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-236 | Over 60 to 90 days the fastest adjustment channel is ownership and tenancy turnover, not rate relief.The September Letter | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-10-28 | Void | VOID KJ-6, MODERATE. 90 days from the 30 July 2026 issue date. Resolves against local reporting on turnover and closures versus any rate relief or fund disbursement in the window; voided if the record cannot separate the two. Resolved 2026-10-28 by Zacharias: “Ownership and tenancy turnover is the fastest adjustment channel” and “Baseline is the most probable path” are judgments, not outcomes. Neither names a measure, a source or a threshold. | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-244 | Baseline is the most probable path.The September Letter | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-10-28 | Void | VOID Outlook assessment, MODERATE. Resolves by the Baseline conditions: notices land as published, forks fall in late October and November, relief criteria publish late. Resolved 2026-10-28 by Zacharias: “Ownership and tenancy turnover is the fastest adjustment channel” and “Baseline is the most probable path” are judgments, not outcomes. Neither names a measure, a source or a threshold. | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-441 | US goods imports for September 2026 in the Census Bureau's advance report are USD 320.0 billion or more.Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4 | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.75 | 2026-10-23 | 2026-10-28 | Resolved | TRUE Imports of goods for September were $344.1 billion, $8.1 billion more than August imports.2026-10-28 | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-309 | The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at its meeting ending 28 October 2026.Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.35 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-29 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-311 | US real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 grows at an annual rate of at least 1.0 percent in the BEA advance estimate.Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.80 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-29 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-358 | The ECB keeps the deposit facility rate at 2.50% at its monetary policy meeting of 29 October 2026.The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.85 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-10-29 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-322 | The BLS producer price index for switchgear, switchboard and industrial controls equipment (series WPU1175, not seasonally adjusted) for September 2026, as first published, is 430.247 or higher.Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.72 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-10-30 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-323 | GE Vernova reports gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements of 120 GW or more as at 30 September 2026.Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.78 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-10-30 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-361 | The Bank of Japan keeps its uncollateralized overnight call rate target at around 1.25% at the Monetary Policy Meeting ending 30 October 2026.The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.75 | 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-30 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-270 | The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.Hiking Into a Supply Shock | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.35 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | Federal Register | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-273 | The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.Hiking Into a Supply Shock | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.68 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | FRED DTB3 and IORB | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-274 | The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.Hiking Into a Supply Shock | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.78 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | Daily Treasury Statement operating cash balance | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-275 | At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2), meaning conduct described at 6 U.S.C. 124n(b)(1)(C), (D) or (F) and not detection, warning or confiscation by hand, occurring anywhere in the United States between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, is publicly reported by 31 October 2026.The Lead Agency Rule | Defense & Security | 0.20 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | Any of the following, checked in this order on 31 October 2026: (1) fbi.gov newsroom and FBI New York field office news page; (2) dhs.gov and secretservice.gov newsrooms; (3) justice.gov Office of Legal Policy counter-UAS pages and Southern and Eastern District of New York press releases; (4) faa.gov newsroom; (5) nyc.gov NYPD newsroom and Mayor's Office press releases; (6) any allowlisted Tier 3 outlet (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, WaPo, FT, BBC) reporting such an action; (7) the FCC Electronic Comment Filing System and Federal Register for any agency filing describing such an action. | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-352 | The Employment Cost Index wages and salaries for civilian workers rise 3.3 percent or less over the 12 months to September 2026.US Prices and Wages After the First Hike | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.75 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-10-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-354 | China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.38 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-10-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-355 | China's official new export orders sub-index for October 2026 is at or above 50.0.China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.35 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-10-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-356 | China's official manufacturing PMI for October 2026, as first published.China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table | Mining & Manufacturing | 49 to 50.3 index points (central 49.6) | 2026-10-10 | 2026-10-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-340 | The ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2026 is at or above 53.0.The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.70 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-11-02 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-341 | The ISM prices index for October 2026 is at or above 70.0.The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.75 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-11-02 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-283 | The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum authorised Neopanamax draft of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) or lower, or reduces total daily booking slots below 32.Panama's Second Drought | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.20 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-11-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | Panama Canal Authority, Advisory to Shipping register, https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-363 | Euro area headline HICP annual inflation for October 2026 is at or above 3.5% in the Eurostat flash estimate.The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.55 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-364 | Euro area core HICP annual inflation, the index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, for October 2026 is at or below 2.7% in the Eurostat flash estimate.The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.85 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-292 | EIA reports Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 2026-10-30 above the five-year average.Rise of North American Energy Dominance | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.80 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-11-05 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-360 | The Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4.00% or higher at the decision of 5 November 2026.The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.65 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-05 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-330 | Flavio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real | Political Risk & Governance | 0.72 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-11-06 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-331 | Flavio Bolsonaro's share of the valid votes in Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real | Political Risk & Governance | 49.5 to 54.5 percent (central 52) | 2026-10-09 | 2026-11-06 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-332 | The Brazilian real trades stronger than 5.10 reais per US dollar on 30 October 2026, the first full trading week after the runoff.Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real | Political Risk & Governance | 0.65 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-11-06 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-344 | The monthly change in US manufacturing employment for October 2026.The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs | Mining & Manufacturing | -15 to 35 thousand jobs (central 10) | 2026-10-10 | 2026-11-06 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-258 | The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.The Rearmament Ledger | Defense & Security | 0.18 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-11-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | Bundesministerium der Verteidigung press releases indexed from https://www.bmvg.de/de/beschaffung-25-millionen-euro-vorlagen | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-325 | Israel holds its Knesset election on 27 October 2026.Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election | Political Risk & Governance | 0.93 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-11-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-326 | The Netanyahu bloc, meaning Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit and Amcha Yisrael with any list running jointly with them, wins at least 61 of the 120 seats in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election | Political Risk & Governance | 0.20 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-11-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-327 | The number of seats won by the Netanyahu bloc, as defined in Claim C-2, in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election | Political Risk & Governance | 47 to 60 seats (central 53) | 2026-10-08 | 2026-11-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-328 | Yashar wins more seats than Likud in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election | Political Risk & Governance | 0.55 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-11-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-350 | Average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees rise 3.1 percent or less over the 12 months to October 2026.US Prices and Wages After the First Hike | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.80 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-11-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-374 | The USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker places the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the US Central Command area of responsibility in an edition published from 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09.Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers | Defense & Security | 0.50 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-09 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-251 | Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1 | Political Risk & Governance | 0.60 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-11-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-263 | MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.Forty-Seven Days to November 10 | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.92 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-11-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | MOFCOM announcements index, https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2026/index.html, checked together with the 2025 index at https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/blgg/gg/2025/index.html | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-357 | China's Ministry of Commerce or General Administration of Customs publishes, on or before 10 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 10 November 2026 the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.75 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-11-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-401 | German total production in industry for September 2026 is lower than in August.Europe's Industrial Recession Test | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-10-12 | 2026-11-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-402 | German production excluding energy and construction for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.Europe's Industrial Recession Test | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.45 | 2026-10-12 | 2026-11-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-422 | The Federal Register publishes, on or before 9 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities.Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January | Political Risk & Governance | 0.35 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-11-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-335 | The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO diagnostic discussion of 12 November 2026 keeps the El Nino Advisory in force and reports a weekly Nino-3.4 anomaly of +2.0 °C or more.The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.80 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-11-12 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-297 | The FAO Food Price Index for October 2026, as first published, is at or above 136.0 points.The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.55 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-11-13 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-324 | The BLS producer price index for transformers and power regulators (series WPU1174, not seasonally adjusted) for October 2026, as first published.Grid Gear Bottleneck: Transformer, Switchgear and Generator Lead Times, and What They Mean for 2027 Bid Pricing | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 432 to 452 index points (central 438) | 2026-10-08 | 2026-11-13 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-255 | The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.The Rearmament Ledger | Defense & Security | 0.40 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-11-16 | Locked | Pending resolution | https://www.war.gov/News/Contracts/ daily contract announcements | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-260 | Total Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code group 13 for federal fiscal year 2026, read from USAspending.gov on 16 November 2026, will be 5.9 billion United States dollars, with an interval of 5.0 billion to 8.5 billion United States dollars.Feedstock Before Firepower | Defense & Security | 5 to 8.5 United States dollars, billions, nominal, contract obligations (central 5.9) | 2026-09-10 | 2026-11-16 | Locked | Pending resolution | USAspending.gov API v2, endpoint POST https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/, read on 16 November 2026. | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-435 | Fed primary metals output for October 2026 is lower than in September 2026.Precious and Primary Metals Into Year End | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.55 | 2026-10-17 | 2026-11-17 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-436 | Fed primary metals capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 70.0 percent.Precious and Primary Metals Into Year End | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.85 | 2026-10-17 | 2026-11-17 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-437 | Fed total industry capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 77.0 percent.Precious and Primary Metals Into Year End | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.50 | 2026-10-17 | 2026-11-17 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-438 | The advance estimate of US retail and food services sales for October 2026 is at least 5.0 percent above October 2025.Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4 | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.85 | 2026-10-23 | 2026-11-17 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-439 | In the advance retail sales release for October 2026, the twelve-month growth of retail and food services sales excluding gasoline stations is at least 1.0 percentage point below the twelve-month growth of total retail and food services sales.Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4 | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.75 | 2026-10-23 | 2026-11-17 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-440 | The US total business inventories to sales ratio for September 2026 is 1.37 or lower.Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4 | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.85 | 2026-10-23 | 2026-11-17 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-380 | Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026, in the weekly storage report released on 19 November 2026, is at or above the five-year average for that week.Winter Grid Stress: PJM, NERC and the Price of Cold | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.70 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-19 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-382 | Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending 13 November 2026 will be about 3,900 Bcf.Winter Grid Stress: PJM, NERC and the Price of Cold | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 3820 to 3980 Bcf (central 3900) | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-19 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-416 | The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a USTR notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the Section 301 actions on China-linked vessels and cargo handling equipment, whether or not with retroactive effect.Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January | Political Risk & Governance | 0.75 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-11-20 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-420 | The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities, whether or not with retroactive effect.Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January | Political Risk & Governance | 0.70 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-11-20 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-398 | The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.Europe's Industrial Recession Test | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.85 | 2026-10-12 | 2026-11-23 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-399 | The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026, as first published.Europe's Industrial Recession Test | Mining & Manufacturing | 50.6 to 53.8 index points (central 52.3) | 2026-10-12 | 2026-11-23 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-289 | EIA weekly US crude oil field production for the week ending 2026-11-20 is at or above 13.90 mb/d.Rise of North American Energy Dominance | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.75 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-11-25 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-337 | The composite of Drewry's World Container Index in the assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be about USD 3,800 per 40ft container.Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter | Supply Chain & Logistics | 3100 to 4600 USD (central 3800) | 2026-10-09 | 2026-11-27 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-338 | The Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 6,500 per 40ft container.Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.60 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-11-27 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-339 | The Shanghai to Rotterdam rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 3,337 per 40ft container, its level on 8 October 2026.Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.60 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-11-27 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-423 | The seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for October 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report, as first published, whatever the method, is about USD 125 billion.The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End | Supply Chain & Logistics | 108 to 142 USD billion (central 125) | 2026-10-14 | 2026-11-27 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-442 | The advance estimate of US retail inventories for October 2026 is less than 6.0 percent above October 2025.Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4 | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.80 | 2026-10-23 | 2026-11-27 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-024 | The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief. The licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users all remain in place.Critical Minerals Under Pressure | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-11-30 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-388 | US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at least 3.0 percent above January to September 2025 in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.85 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-30 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-389 | US all-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 are at least 1.5 percent above January to September 2025 in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.75 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-30 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-392 | The year-to-date growth of US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 exceeds the year-to-date growth of US all-sector retail sales over the same months by at least 1.0 percentage point in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.80 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-11-30 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-417 | President Trump travels to Shenzhen during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and meets Xi Jinping or appears at the meeting there.Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January | Political Risk & Governance | 0.75 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-11-30 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-053 | Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.The Re-Priced CorridorResolves against the series Strait of Hormuz | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-12-01 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-333 | At least one Atlantic hurricane other than Isaias forms between 9 October 2026 and 30 November 2026.The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.35 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-12-01 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-334 | The total number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, counted at the season's end on 30 November 2026.The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 9 to 12 named storms (central 10) | 2026-10-09 | 2026-12-01 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-345 | The ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.85 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-12-01 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-369 | The Office of Foreign Assets Control designates at least one additional vessel under Iran-related sanctions authorities between 2026-10-11 and 2026-11-30.Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers | Defense & Security | 0.80 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-01 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-379 | Total daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks of the Panama Canal in effect on 24 November 2026 are 33 or more.Chokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit Counts | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.70 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-01 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-371 | The IAEA Board of Governors adopts a new resolution on Iran at any session held between 2026-11-01 and 2026-11-30.Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers | Defense & Security | 0.45 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-02 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-373 | The cumulative number of merchant vessels redirected under the US blockade of Iranian ports, in the latest figure US Central Command publishes on or before 2026-12-01.Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers | Defense & Security | 150 to 225 vessels (central 180) | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-02 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-301 | Democrats win at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives in the 3 November 2026 election.Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk | Political Risk & Governance | 0.70 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-12-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-306 | The number of House seats won by Democrats in the 3 November 2026 election.Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk | Political Risk & Governance | 214 to 242 seats (central 228) | 2026-10-06 | 2026-12-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-365 | Democrat Troy Jackson defeats Senator Susan Collins in the 3 November 2026 Maine Senate election.Beyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 2027 | Political Risk & Governance | 0.55 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-366 | The number of the 50 state governorships held by Democrats after the 2026 elections.Beyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 2027 | Political Risk & Governance | 23 to 28 governorships (central 25) | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-367 | The Republican candidate wins the 3 November 2026 Kansas governor election.Beyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 2027 | Political Risk & Governance | 0.60 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-368 | Democrat Sherrod Brown wins the 3 November 2026 Ohio Senate special election.Beyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 2027 | Political Risk & Governance | 0.55 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-428 | National, ACT and NZ First together win more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives in New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election.The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan | Political Risk & Governance | 0.35 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-429 | The Opportunity Party wins at least 5 percent of the party vote in New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election.The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan | Political Risk & Governance | 0.65 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-347 | The Senate agrees to a full text of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027, whether S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended or a negotiated text moved on any vehicle, on or before 7 December 2026.The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year? | Defense & Security | 0.25 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-08 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-376 | The total non-Iranian-linked transits of the Strait of Hormuz for the latest complete week reported in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Strait of Hormuz Brief published on or after 24 November 2026.Chokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit Counts | Supply Chain & Logistics | 70 to 210 transits (central 120) | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-08 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-377 | The preliminary weekly count of Bab el-Mandeb transits in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Brief published on or after 24 November 2026 is 257 or more, at or above its January 2026 weekly average.Chokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit Counts | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.65 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-08 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-378 | The weekly count of Suez Canal transits in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Brief published on or after 24 November 2026 is 270 or more.Chokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit Counts | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.60 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-08 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-425 | The US goods trade deficit with China for October 2026, Census basis, in the full trade release is less than USD 20.0 billion.The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.75 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-08 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-414 | The People's Bank of China reports gold reserves at the end of November 2026 higher than at the end of October 2026.Gold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027 | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.85 | 2026-10-13 | 2026-12-09 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-310 | The upper limit of the federal funds target range is at or above 4.25 percent after the FOMC meeting ending 9 December 2026.Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.75 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-12-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-298 | The FAO Sugar Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 106.4 points.The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.75 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-299 | The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 198.6 points.The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.55 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-300 | The FAO Food Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 140.1 points.The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.20 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-312 | The US unemployment rate for November 2026 is at or above 4.5 percent.Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing? | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.12 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-348 | The CPI-U all items index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.US Prices and Wages After the First Hike | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.60 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-349 | The CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.US Prices and Wages After the First Hike | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.70 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-351 | Real average hourly earnings of all employees fall over the 12 months to November 2026.US Prices and Wages After the First Hike | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.80 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-353 | In November 2026 the CPI-U all items 12-month change exceeds the CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change by at least 0.8 percentage point.US Prices and Wages After the First Hike | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.65 | 2026-10-10 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-426 | Net customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are more than USD 15 billion.The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.70 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-427 | Gross customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement for November 2026 are more than USD 22 billion.The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.80 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-11 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-148 | Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.Venezuela After Maduro | Political Risk & Governance | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-12-13 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-257 | Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.The Rearmament Ledger | Defense & Security | 0.60 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-12-15 | Locked | Pending resolution | https://api.usaspending.gov (spending by category, Product Service Code, awarding agency Department of Defense, contract award types A through D, fiscal year 2026) | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-288 | Conditional on the governments of the United States and Iran both publicly announcing an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz on or before 15 November 2026, the first Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published on or after the fourteenth day following that announcement will be at least 25 percent below the last Baltic Exchange TD3C round-trip time charter equivalent assessment published before the announcement date.$700,000 a Day | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.85 | 2026-09-14 | 2026-12-15 | Locked | Pending resolution | Baltic Exchange, weekly tanker report (Friday-dated), https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/WeeklyRoundup/tanker.html, read against the United States government channels https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/, https://www.state.gov/policy-issues/sanctions/ and https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/, and against Reuters (https://www.reuters.com) and the Associated Press (https://apnews.com) reporting official statements of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-293 | EIA reports US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks for the week ending 2026-12-11 below 280.0 million barrels.Rise of North American Energy Dominance | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.45 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-12-16 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-421 | The Defense Security Cooperation Agency posts a major arms sale notification for Taiwan dated from 10 October to 15 December 2026.Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January | Political Risk & Governance | 0.15 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-16 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-359 | The ECB deposit facility rate is at or above 2.75% after the monetary policy meeting of 17 December 2026.The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.70 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-17 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-390 | The December 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast of total US electricity consumption in 2027.The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 4310 to 4400 billion kWh (central 4355) | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-18 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-418 | Xi Jinping attends the G20 leaders' summit in Miami in person.Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January | Political Risk & Governance | 0.55 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-18 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-430 | Adama Barrow is declared the winner of The Gambia's 5 December 2026 presidential election.The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan | Political Risk & Governance | 0.70 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-20 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-362 | The one-year loan prime rate is 3.0% in the December 2026 fixing.The Other Central Banks: ECB, BoE, BoJ and the PBOC at Year End | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.85 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-21 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-290 | The EIA daily Europe Brent spot price FOB for 2026-12-18 is at or above 100 USD per barrel.Rise of North American Energy Dominance | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.45 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-12-23 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-294 | Violent disorder described as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation takes place on at least two consecutive nights in a single town or city in the United Kingdom, Ireland or an EU Member State between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest | Defense & Security | 0.40 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-12-27 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-295 | Fewer than 25,000 people are recorded arriving in the UK by small boat in the calendar year 2026 up to and including 26 December 2026.Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest | Defense & Security | 0.55 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-12-27 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-296 | A completed attack that national authorities describe as Islamist or jihadist terrorism kills at least one person in an EU Member State or the UK between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest | Defense & Security | 0.50 | 2026-09-29 | 2026-12-27 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-313 | The maximum authorised draft in the Panama Canal Neopanamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 is 49.0 feet or more.Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.55 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-12-28 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-314 | India announces a new ban, export duty or minimum export price on non-basmati rice exports between 9 October 2026 and 28 December 2026.Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.15 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-12-28 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-315 | Total daily transit slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 are 32 or more.Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.65 | 2026-10-08 | 2026-12-28 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-424 | The seasonally adjusted US goods trade deficit for November 2026, Census basis, in the Census Bureau's advance report is more than USD 115 billion.The Tariff Ledger: Trade Gaps and Customs Receipts to Year End | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.65 | 2026-10-14 | 2026-12-28 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-256 | Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.The Rearmament Ledger | Defense & Security | 0.10 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | https://www.congress.gov and https://www.govinfo.gov (public laws of the 119th Congress) | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-259 | The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026, that initial Grade A nitrocellulose production capability has been achieved at Radford Army Ammunition Plant.Feedstock Before Firepower | Defense & Security | 0.15 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | Public statements of the United States Army and of the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics: https://www.cpeae.army.mil/News/ and https://www.army.mil/news/, congressional testimony published by the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, and Department of the Army budget justification material published at https://www.asafm.army.mil/Budget-Materials/. | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-261 | A public United States Army or Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics statement, or a subsequent Department of War Inspector General or Government Accountability Office product, issued on or before 31 December 2026, states a 155mm load, assemble and pack rate of 63,000 rounds per month or more for any month up to and including November 2026.Feedstock Before Firepower | Defense & Security | 0.12 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | Public statements of the United States Army and of the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics (https://www.cpeae.army.mil/News/, https://www.army.mil/news/), congressional testimony, and reports published by the Department of War Office of Inspector General (https://www.dodig.mil/Reports/ and https://www.oversight.gov/) or the Government Accountability Office (https://www.gao.gov/). | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-276 | The Authorized Systems List or the Authorized Technologies List, or any portion of either identifying specific technology categories or specific systems, is published in a publicly readable form not requiring law-enforcement credentials, on or before 31 December 2026.The Lead Agency Rule | Defense & Security | 0.55 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | Checked on 31 December 2026: (1) the 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) unclassified report to Congress, as published on congress.gov, govinfo.gov, justice.gov or fbi.gov; (2) fbi.gov counter-UAS pages; (3) dhs.gov counter-unmanned-aircraft-systems pages; (4) justice.gov Office of Legal Policy counter-UAS pages; (5) federalregister.gov, for any notice or final rule reproducing or incorporating either list; (6) fcc.gov, for any release reproducing either list. | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-286 | The next European Commission Carbon Market Report, or any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on or before 31 December 2026, states that shipping companies surrendered allowances for less than 99% of the surrendering requirements for the 2025 compliance cycle.70% and Counting | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.25 | 2026-09-14 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | European Commission Carbon Market Report series (climate.ec.europa.eu) and any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on or before 31 December 2026 | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-381 | The RTO clearing price of PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year equals that auction's price cap.Winter Grid Stress: PJM, NERC and the Price of Cold | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.70 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-385 | The US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures close on 31 December 2026 falls inside our range.Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall | Mining & Manufacturing | 1100 to 1400 USD per short ton (central 1250) | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-386 | On 31 December 2026 the US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures price, converted to tonnes, is at least twice the LME Steel HRC FOB China (Argus) price.Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.85 | 2026-10-11 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-443 | The shortfall of capacity cleared in PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year, with fixed resource requirement commitments, against that auction's reliability requirement, in MW.The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 3000 to 11000 MW (central 7000) | 2026-10-26 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-444 | PJM publishes the results of its base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year on or before 31 December 2026.The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.90 | 2026-10-26 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-445 | The Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau issues its final approval of the environmental impact report for the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 December 2026.Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.80 | 2026-10-28 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-447 | The closing price of the most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on 31 December 2026.Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound | Mining & Manufacturing | 75000 to 130000 yuan per tonne (central 97000) | 2026-10-28 | 2026-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-302 | Democrats and independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 Senate seats after the 2026 elections.Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk | Political Risk & Governance | 0.45 | 2026-10-06 | 2027-01-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-303 | The 2026 election produces a Democratic House majority and a Republican Senate majority.Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk | Political Risk & Governance | 0.30 | 2026-10-06 | 2027-01-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-304 | The 2026 election produces a Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate.Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk | Political Risk & Governance | 0.40 | 2026-10-06 | 2027-01-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-305 | A lapse in appropriations shuts down any part of the federal government between 12 December and 31 December 2026.Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk | Political Risk & Governance | 0.20 | 2026-10-06 | 2027-01-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-370 | The governments of the United States and Iran both publicly confirm a signed agreement that provides for lifting or suspending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports between 2026-10-11 and 2026-12-31.Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers | Defense & Security | 0.15 | 2026-10-11 | 2027-01-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-372 | US Central Command announces at least one US strike on a target on Iranian land territory carried out between 2026-11-04 and 2026-12-31.Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers | Defense & Security | 0.40 | 2026-10-11 | 2027-01-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-375 | IAEA inspectors carry out an inspection, confirmed by the agency, at any facility at the Fordow, Natanz or Isfahan nuclear sites, the three sites struck in June 2025, on a date between 2026-10-11 and 2026-12-31.Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers | Defense & Security | 0.10 | 2026-10-11 | 2027-01-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-412 | The settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31 December 2026 is about USD 4280 per troy ounce.Gold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027 | Economic & Financial Markets | 3750 to 4800 USD per troy ounce (central 4280) | 2026-10-13 | 2027-01-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-413 | The settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31 December 2026 is at or above USD 4650 per troy ounce.Gold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027 | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.20 | 2026-10-13 | 2027-01-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-433 | The total number of entries in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog with a date added on or before 31 December 2026.Cyber and Disaster Exposure, November and December | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 1790 to 1840 entries (central 1815) | 2026-10-16 | 2027-01-04 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-391 | FERC issues an order on the merits on at least one regional operator's response to its June 2026 large-load show cause orders by 31 December 2026.The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.40 | 2026-10-11 | 2027-01-05 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-411 | The total stablecoin market capitalisation on the DefiLlama stablecoins dashboard is at or above 300 billion USD for 31 December 2026.The Agent Economy: Paid Research and Data for AI Agents, 2026 to 2027 | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.65 | 2026-10-12 | 2027-01-05 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-415 | The 10-year TIPS real yield for 31 December 2026 is at or above 2.60 percent.Gold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027 | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.70 | 2026-10-13 | 2027-01-05 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-431 | Voting in South Sudan's general election takes place on 22 December 2026.The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan | Political Risk & Governance | 0.25 | 2026-10-14 | 2027-01-05 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-432 | Bahrain holds a Council of Representatives election on any day up to and including 31 December 2026.The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan | Political Risk & Governance | 0.05 | 2026-10-14 | 2027-01-05 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-329 | A new Israeli government wins a Knesset confidence vote on or before 6 January 2027.Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election | Political Risk & Governance | 0.35 | 2026-10-08 | 2027-01-06 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-346 | The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 is enacted into law on or before 3 January 2027.The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year? | Defense & Security | 0.65 | 2026-10-11 | 2027-01-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-383 | The standard Section 232 rate of 50 percent on Annex I-A steel and aluminium articles of all origins remains in force through 7 January 2027.Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.88 | 2026-10-11 | 2027-01-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-384 | A Section 232 rate below 50 percent for primary aluminium of Canadian origin, available to all Canadian producers rather than only approved investors, is published by 7 January 2027.Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.20 | 2026-10-11 | 2027-01-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-387 | Commerce adds further derivative articles to the Section 232 duties following the August 2026 request for comments, published by 7 January 2027.Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.50 | 2026-10-11 | 2027-01-07 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-434 | The President declares a major disaster for the State of Florida for Hurricane Isaias on or before 31 December 2026.Cyber and Disaster Exposure, November and December | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.80 | 2026-10-16 | 2027-01-08 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-409 | The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency publishes a final rule implementing the GENIUS Act for OCC-supervised payment stablecoin issuers in the Federal Register on or before 10 January 2027.The Agent Economy: Paid Research and Data for AI Agents, 2026 to 2027 | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.65 | 2026-10-12 | 2027-01-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-410 | The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation publishes a final rule implementing the GENIUS Act requirements and standards for FDIC-supervised permitted payment stablecoin issuers in the Federal Register on or before 10 January 2027.The Agent Economy: Paid Research and Data for AI Agents, 2026 to 2027 | Economic & Financial Markets | 0.40 | 2026-10-12 | 2027-01-10 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-419 | The Federal Register publishes, on or before 12 January 2027, a presidential document or USTR notice that extends any US truce measure toward China beyond 10 January 2027.Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January | Political Risk & Governance | 0.55 | 2026-10-14 | 2027-01-12 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-267 | The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026.Three Percent on Paper | Political Risk & Governance | 0.15 | 2026-09-11 | 2027-01-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | Legislative Yuan at https://www.ly.gov.tw, with Focus Taiwan at https://focustaiwan.tw as the named mirror | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-277 | The blanket special temporary authority granted to state, local, tribal and territorial agencies by FCC DA 26-656 on 2 July 2026 is renewed, extended, or replaced by a categorical or standing authorisation covering the same class of operations, with effect on or before 31 January 2027.The Lead Agency Rule | Defense & Security | 0.75 | 2026-09-11 | 2027-01-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | Checked on 31 January 2027: (1) FCC Electronic Document Management System and Daily Digest at fcc.gov for releases in GN Docket 26-74; (2) the FCC Electronic Comment Filing System docket 26-74 filing set; (3) federalregister.gov for any FCC rule or notice authorising SLTT counter-UAS emissions; (4) fcc.gov Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau and Office of Engineering and Technology release pages. | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-446 | CATL resumes ore mining at the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 January 2027.Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.45 | 2026-10-28 | 2027-01-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-284 | The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured in feet.Panama's Second Drought | Supply Chain & Logistics | 45 to 48 feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft (central 47) | 2026-09-11 | 2027-02-16 | Locked | Pending resolution | Panama Canal Authority, Advisory to Shipping register, https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ | BRIER-native |
| CLM-2026-004 | Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.When the Models Met Reality | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-05-26 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-022 | Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.The Ground Underneath the Map | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-05-26 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-031 | Across all three scenarios the structural chokepoint persists.Critical Minerals Under Pressure | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-05-26 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-040 | Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.The Uninsurable Frontier | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-05-26 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-063 | The combined stack is durable on a 12-month horizon irrespective of any single bilateral negotiation or WTO action. Each regime is statutorily entrenched in a distinct legal system; the political consensus underwriting each spans more than one electoral cycle.The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-068 | The lesson for the wider regime stack is that WTO remedies are not the operative deterrent against downstreaming mandates on a 12-month horizon.The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-104 | Baseline and Deterioration both imply the discount widens; Stabilization implies it narrows. None imply it disappears.Resource Nationalism Wave 3.0 | Political Risk & Governance | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-130 | The attribution gap is durable. Across five major incident clusters in four years, no Western investigation has produced a finalized public state-actor attribution, and the institutional and legal frameworks that would close the gap have not changed.The Attribution Gap | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-133 | We judge that this pattern, not state attribution, is what Western seafloor enforcement actually looks like over the next 12 months.The Attribution Gap | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-137 | Across all three scenarios the structural concentration of the West's seafloor footprint and the repair-fleet capacity constraint do not change on a 12-month horizon.The Attribution Gap | Supply Chain & Logistics | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-166 | Baseline, a slow rule-out with the gap intact, is the most probable twelve-month path.The Authority Gap | Defense & Security | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-19 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-178 | Baseline, rising spend against divided ownership, is the most probable path.Who Owns the Risk? | Political Risk & Governance | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-19 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-191 | The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline, in which spending and disclosure keep rising while integration lags, leaving the seam open.The Protection Premium | Defense & Security | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-06-19 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-220 | The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline: partial, jurisdiction-bound deletion gains against a professionalizing threat, leaving the footprint decisive.The Footprint Before the Threat | Defense & Security | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-07-14 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-227 | The most probable twelve-month path is Baseline shading into Acceleration.The Field Before the RFP | Political Risk & Governance | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-07-16 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-015 | Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027.The Ground Underneath the Map | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-066 | A mid-term review or amendment cycle is more likely than not before 2028.The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2027-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-078 | The single most acute single-source bottleneck in the US system is nitrocellulose at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, with the SRM duopoly a close second. Each carries a multi-year qualified-supplier path no supplemental appropriation can shortcut inside 24 months.The Western Munitions Bottleneck | Defense & Security | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2028-06-03 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-081 | Authorizations from 2024 to 2025 convert to throughput in 2026 to 2028, not in the budget year. Today's appropriations do not fix today's magazine.The Western Munitions Bottleneck | Defense & Security | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2028-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-205 | The gap is structural, not a financing gap in disguise, and will not close on a 2026 to 2028 horizon regardless of how much additional capital is announced in that window.The Rare-Earth Midstream | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2028-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-202 | The realistic planning constraint for the next three years is construction and qualification lead time, not capital availability.The Rare-Earth Midstream | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2029-07-08 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-079 | Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.The Western Munitions Bottleneck | Defense & Security | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2030-03-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-064 | The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not trajectory-consistent with current EU dependency shares on China.The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2030-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-208 | Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration meaningfully worsens the buyer's position, and none closes the gap outright.The Rare-Earth Midstream | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2030-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-013 | During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.The Ground Underneath the Map | Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk | 0.85 | 2026-09-08 | 2031-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-030 | Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.Critical Minerals Under Pressure | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2035-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |
| CLM-2026-200 | The decision-relevant measure is contracted, qualified midstream throughput and its delivery date; independent 2035 projections show the structural gap persisting on that measure regardless of how the mining picture evolves.The Rare-Earth Midstream | Mining & Manufacturing | 0.65 | 2026-09-08 | 2035-12-31 | Locked | Pending resolution | See claim record | Legacy forward |