CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“China's Ministry of Commerce or General Administration of Customs publishes, on or before 10 November 2026, an announcement extending beyond 10 November 2026 the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.”
This claim comes from China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table, published on 10 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.75 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 75 in 100. It resolves by 10 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.75Locked probability
2026-11-10Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "China's Factory Cycle at the APEC Table"
Window as statedup to and including 10 November 2026
How it will be settledReuters: YES if Reuters reports, by 10 November 2026, that the Ministry of Commerce or the General Administration of Customs has published such an announcement; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familychina-s-factory-cycle-at-the-apec-table; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.