The Uninsurable Frontier
Parametric, ILS, and the Capital-Markets Repartition of Catastrophe Risk
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-040 | Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path. | 0.85 | 2026-05-26 | 2027-05-26 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
Open-source intelligence verified against allowlisted Tier 1 to Tier 4 sources, with cat-bond and ILS market figures from Artemis and Aon, sovereign-pool payout data from CCRIF, SEADRIF, ARC, and PCRIC disclosures, parametric market size triangulated from industry research, and broker and consultancy analysis from Guy Carpenter, PwC, and WTW. Claims are structured as six key judgments with explicit confidence levels and superscript citations into a 31-entry source registry, with each section closing in an assessment stating confidence and rationale.
Limitations: Public allocator-level data is fragmentary and reporting lag is material, which holds the allocator-behavior judgment at moderate confidence.
Estimative language in this report follows the firm’s published standard: judgments carry HIGH, MODERATE, or LOW confidence, and each carries its rationale in the full report. The framework, source tiers, and anti-fabrication perimeter are public on the methodology page. Corrections issue as numbered addenda.