CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“The shortfall of capacity cleared in PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year, with fixed resource requirement commitments, against that auction's reliability requirement, in MW.”
This claim comes from The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction, published on 26 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 26 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 3000 to 11000 MW with a central estimate of 7000; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked26 Oct
Resolves by31 Dec
Today
On the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
3000 to 11000 MW (central 7000)Locked range
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction"
Window as stated31 Dec 2026, in 2 months
How it will be settledUtility Dive: the measure read is the shortfall of cleared capacity plus fixed resource requirement commitments against the reliability requirement of the 2029/2030 base residual auction, in MW, as Utility Dive reports it from PJM's results on or before 31 December 2026, read as 0 MW if the auction meets its requirement; if no results are published by 31 December 2026 the claim is void.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-fourth-cap-pjm-s-december-2029-2030-capacity-auction; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-26, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.