CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.”
This claim comes from The Rearmament Ledger, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.60 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 60 in 100. It resolves by 15 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.60Locked probability
2026-12-15Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C6
Window as stated2026-12-15
How it will be settledYES if the sum of Department of Defense contract obligations for fiscal year 2026 under all Product Service Codes beginning 14 exceeds $38,000,000,000 when queried on 15 December 2026. The query is the same one the firm ran on 9 September 2026 and is recorded in chart_data/usaspending_psc13_14_obligations.csv. NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromExplicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C6
Record classbrier native
Claim familyus-missile-obligations-fy2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.