CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“The Republican candidate wins the 3 November 2026 Kansas governor election.”
This claim comes from Beyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 2027, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.60 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 60 in 100. It resolves by 4 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked11 Oct
Resolves by4 Dec
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
From the reportBeyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 202711 October 2026 · AIG-GOV-26-010Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-365Democrat Troy Jackson defeats Senator Susan Collins in the 3 November 2026 Maine Senate election.55% · resolves in 53 d
- CLM-2026-366The number of the 50 state governorships held by Democrats after the 2026 elections.a range · resolves in 53 d
- CLM-2026-368Democrat Sherrod Brown wins the 3 November 2026 Ohio Senate special election.55% · resolves in 53 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.60Locked probability
2026-12-04Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Beyond the House: the Senate and Governor Races That Decide 2027"
Window as statedup to and including 4 December 2026
How it will be settledAssociated Press: YES if, as of 2026-12-04, the Associated Press has called the Kansas governor race for the Republican nominee; otherwise NO.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familybeyond-the-house-the-senate-and-governor-races-that-decide; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.