PMR-2026-0619-USA-003 · Defense & Security Intelligence
Drones cross into the airspace over American bases, prisons, airports, and stadiums as a matter of routine, but until December 2025 only four federal agencies could lawfully stop one, leaving every venue, utility, data center, and estate able only to watch. The new SAFER SKIES Act opens the door, and the market, but the rulebook is late and certification has barely begun. The gap between the threat and the authority to meet it is where the next protection market is forming.
Read the full PMR (PDF) →Current read · Update on the SAFER SKIES implementing rulemaking, a material change in authority, or a significant homeland drone incident
Key Judgments
Six judgments anchor this assessment. Each is tied to cited evidence in the body of the brief and carries an explicit confidence level. The four below are the load-bearing four.
- High confidence. Drone incursions over US bases, prisons, airports, and stadiums are now routine and measured, roughly 350 over military installations, 479 at federal prisons, and 2,845 over NFL games in a single season, not anomalous.
- High confidence. Until December 2025, only four federal agencies could lawfully bring a drone down. Shooting one is a felony and jamming one violates FCC law, with no exemption for police, venues, or private owners, so the most exposed parties could only detect.
- Moderate confidence. The SAFER SKIES Act opens federal authority to 2031 and a first state and local mitigation pathway, but it is gated behind training, certification, and implementing rules due around mid-2026. The door is open; the rulebook is late.
- Moderate confidence. The counter-drone market is real and fast-growing but poorly bounded, with 2025 estimates ranging $3.2 to $8.4 billion at roughly 25 percent annual growth. The durable signal is the contract spine and a commercial segment that cannot yet lawfully self-mitigate.