CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The United States Army or the Capability Program Executive for Ammunition and Energetics publicly confirms, on or before 31 December 2026, that initial Grade A nitrocellulose production capability has been achieved at Radford Army Ammunition Plant.”
This claim comes from Feedstock Before Firepower, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.15 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 15 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.15Locked probability
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-007, forward tranche DEF-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0015
Window as stated2026-12-31
How it will be settledTRUE only if, on or before 31 December 2026, one of the following is published and states that initial production capability, initial operating capability, or initial production of Grade A nitrocellulose has been achieved or commenced at Radford Army Ammunition Plant: (a) a news release or article on cpeae.army.mil or army.mil; (b) testimony or a written statement for the record submitted by an Army or Department of War official to a committee of Congress; or (c) a Department of the Army budget justification document or exhibit. A trade-press report describing an unpublished government document, including any report of the Army energetics report written to the FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act requirement, does NOT resolve this claim, whether or not the outlet quotes the document. A report by any outlet that quotes a named official making the statement in public does resolve it, because the resolving act is the public official statement rather than the outlet. A statement that the facility has been commissioned, constructed, opened or ribbon-cut, without a statement that production or production capability has been achieved, does NOT resolve it TRUE. Absent a qualifying statement by 31 December 2026 the claim resolves FALSE.
Where the probability came fromExplicit analyst probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-007; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0015
Record classbrier native
Claim familyus-nitrocellulose-radford-2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.