CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“National, ACT and NZ First together win more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives in New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election.”
This claim comes from The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan, published on 14 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 14 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.35 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 35 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 4 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked14 Oct
Resolves by4 Dec
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
From the reportThe Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan14 October 2026 · AIG-GOV-26-012Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-429The Opportunity Party wins at least 5 percent of the party vote in New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election.65% · resolves in 51 d
- CLM-2026-430Adama Barrow is declared the winner of The Gambia's 5 December 2026 presidential election.70% · resolves in 67 d
- CLM-2026-431Voting in South Sudan's general election takes place on 22 December 2026.25% · resolves in 83 d
- CLM-2026-432Bahrain holds a Council of Representatives election on any day up to and including 31 December 2026.5% · resolves in 83 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.35Locked probability
2026-12-04Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan"
Window as statedthe 7 November 2026 general election, as declared up to and including 4 December 2026
How it will be settledAssociated Press: YES if the official results as reported by the Associated Press by 2026-12-04 give National, ACT and NZ First a combined total of more than half of all seats in the House, including any overhang seats; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-election-tail-new-zealand-the-gambia-bahrain-and-south; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-14, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.