Aegean Intelligence Group
THE INTELLIGENCE PORTAL / CLAIMCLM-2026-271 · PUBLIC RECORD · 2026
ClaimCLM-2026-271Economic & Financial MarketsCreated 2026-09-11Updated 2026-10-10stablecoins.llama.fiStandard: AEGEAN-OS v1.3
CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS

“DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.”

This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.38 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 38 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 9 October 2026, only against a dated public source.

This call, in time
Written and locked11 Sep
Did not come true10 Oct
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportHiking Into a Supply Shock11 September 2026 · AIG-ECO-26-001
Its sibling calls
  1. CLM-2026-268August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.62% · Did not come true · 2 Oct
  2. CLM-2026-269September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.38% · Came true · 5 Oct
  3. CLM-2026-270The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.35% · resolves in 3 d
  4. CLM-2026-272The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.70% · Did not come true · 15 Oct
  5. CLM-2026-273The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.68% · resolves in 3 d
  6. CLM-2026-274The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.78% · resolves in 3 d

Status

Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.38Locked probability
2026-10-09Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-10-10
0.1444Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared

Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 10 October 2026 by a public source at stablecoins.llama.fi: {"date":"1791504000", ... "totalCirculatingUSD":{"peggedUSD":311611497263, ... "peggedEUR":823585998, ... "peggedRUB":551057812, ...}} (timestamp 1791504000 = 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC; peggedUSD ≈ $311.61bn; all 28 peg types summed ≈ $313.31bn)

Extraction and settlement

Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C4; engine record AIG-FWD-0027
Window as stated2026-10-09
How it will be settledTRUE if the API daily total for 9 October is at least $320 billion; otherwise FALSE.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0027
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard

The series it resolves against

The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.

This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.

Connected objects
Report (1)
Desk (1)
Series (0)

This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.

Dataset (1)