CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 will be below USD 6,500 per 40ft container.”
This claim comes from Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter, published on 9 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.60 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 60 in 100. It resolves by 27 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.60Locked probability
2026-11-27Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Box Rates into Lunar New Year: the Container Market's Last Quarter"
Window as statedfor the assessment dated 26 November 2026
How it will be settledDrewry: YES if the Shanghai to Los Angeles rate in Drewry's World Container Index assessment dated 26 November 2026 is below USD 6,500 per 40ft container, as first published, whatever the method; if no assessment carries that date, the first one published after it counts; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familybox-rates-into-lunar-new-year-the-container-market-s-last; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-09, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.