CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“Across all three scenarios, the non-Chinese midstream does not displace China's lead within the 2026-to-2030 window; only Deterioration meaningfully worsens the buyer's position, and none closes the gap outright.”
This claim comes from The Rare-Earth Midstream, published on 8 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 31 December 2030, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2030-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF p.11, Section 06 Assessment (High Confidence)
Window as stated2026-to-2030 window
How it will be settledChina share of rare-earth refining and magnet output through 2030 remains the majority (S&P Global, IEA, USGS).
Where the probability came fromConfidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportHIGH
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familyrare-earth-midstream; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.