CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.”
This claim comes from Forty-Seven Days to November 10, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.92 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 92 in 100. It resolves by 10 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.92Locked probability
2026-11-10Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-MIN-26-004, forward tranche MFG-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0019
Window as stated2026-11-10
How it will be settledResolves YES if, as of 23:59 Beijing time on 10 November 2026, no numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC instrument published on the 2025 or 2026 announcements indices suspends, repeals or replaces MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 of 4 April 2025 in whole. Resolves NO if such an instrument exists on the index by that time. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An instrument that suspends Announcement No. 18 of 2025 in part, for example for a named element or a named class of end user, resolves NO, and the scorer records which part. (2) An administrative facility such as a general licence, a streamlined process or a case-by-case approval commitment, whether described by a MOFCOM spokesperson, a press-conference transcript, a Chinese state media report or a White House fact sheet, does not resolve NO, because it is not an instrument on the announcements index. (3) An instrument that adds elements to, or otherwise tightens, the Announcement 18 regime resolves YES, because the announcement remains in force. (4) If the MOFCOM index is unreachable on the resolution date, the scorer waits until it is reachable and scores against the index state as of the resolution date.
Where the probability came fromExplicit analyst probability approved with AIG-MIN-26-004; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0019
Record classbrier native
Claim familychina-announcement-18-status-2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.