70% and Counting
The second EU ETS maritime surrender, the measurement gap around it, and what 100% costs on a Cape routing
The obligation is unambiguous and the penalty is EUR 100 per tonne. What does not exist is any public, timely measure of whether a system covering 5,298 attributed shipping companies met it.
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-285 | The EEX EU allowance primary market spot auction clearing price for the EU common auction held on 30 September 2026, or for the last EU common auction held before that date if none is held on it, will be EUR 85.00 per tonne of carbon dioxide, within an interval of EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 per tonne. | 76 to 94 EUR per tonne CO2 (central 85) | 2026-09-14 | 2026-09-30 | Locked | |
| CLM-2026-286 | The next European Commission Carbon Market Report, or any other European Commission or European Environment Agency publication issued on or before 31 December 2026, states that shipping companies surrendered allowances for less than 99% of the surrendering requirements for the 2025 compliance cycle. | 0.25 | 2026-09-14 | 2026-12-31 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
The obligation is unambiguous and the penalty is EUR 100 per tonne. What does not exist is any public, timely measure of whether a system covering 5,298 attributed shipping companies met it.
The complete source registry, limits, methodology and binding forecast definitions are preserved in the downloadable report. Each forecast is locked before publication to a named public resolution source.
The evidence tiers, confidence bands, forward-claim rule and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.