CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“Fed primary metals capacity utilization for October 2026 is below 70.0 percent.”
This claim comes from Precious and Primary Metals Into Year End, published on 17 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 17 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 17 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked17 Oct
Resolves by17 Nov
Today
On the Mining & Manufacturing Horizon
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2026-11-17Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Precious and Primary Metals Into Year End"
Window as statedfor October 2026, as first published up to and including 17 November 2026
How it will be settledFederal Reserve Board data & statistics: YES if the industrial production release of 17 November 2026 shows primary metals (NAICS 331) capacity utilization for October 2026 below 70.0 percent, as first published, whatever the method.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyprecious-and-primary-metals-into-year-end; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-17, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.