CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The EEX EU allowance primary market spot auction clearing price for the EU common auction held on 30 September 2026, or for the last EU common auction held before that date if none is held on it, will be EUR 85.00 per tonne of carbon dioxide, within an interval of EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 per tonne.”
This claim comes from 70% and Counting, published on 14 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 14 September 2026. The firm locked a range of 76 to 94 EUR per tonne CO2 with a central estimate of 85; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 30 September 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked14 Sep
Came true2 Oct
Today
On the Supply Chain & Logistics Horizon
From the report70% and Counting14 September 2026 · AIG-SCL-26-002Its sibling calls
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
76 to 94 EUR per tonne CO2 (central 85)Locked range
2026-09-30Resolves by
TRUEOutcome · 2026-10-02
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 2 October 2026 by a public source at public.eex-group.com: The 29 September EU common auction cleared at EUR 84.87 per tonne
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-SCL-26-002, forward item SCL3-C1; engine record BRIER-FWD-0041
Window as stated2026-09-30
How it will be settledRead the EEX emission spot primary market auction report for 2026 (the published xlsx, or the equivalent EEX auction results page). The file downloads without a login; this reading path was used on 9 September 2026 and read again on 14 September 2026. Take the row for the EU common auction, that is the auction conducted on behalf of the participating EU Member States, not the separate German or Polish national platform auctions, held on 30 September 2026. EEX holds EU common auctions on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays and 30 September 2026 is a Wednesday, so on the calendar as published no EU common auction falls on the resolution date and the resolving row is expected to be the auction of Tuesday 29 September 2026; in that case take the row for the last EU common auction held before 30 September 2026. The claim resolves on that row's clearing price in EUR per tonne of CO2. HIT if the clearing price falls within EUR 76.00 to EUR 94.00 inclusive; MISS if outside. The interval is a nominal 80% interval. The central value of EUR 85.00 is scored separately as absolute error in EUR per tonne. Two scorers reading the same file on the same date must obtain the same number; no interpolation, no averaging across auctions, and no substitution of an ICE Endex settlement, a secondary-market quote or an aggregator benchmark. If the EEX report and the EEX auction results page are both unreadable on the resolution date, the claim is scored on the same EEX report when it next becomes readable, and if neither is readable by 31 October 2026 the claim is recorded UNRESOLVED rather than scored against any substitute series.
Where the probability came fromLocked interval approved with AIG-SCL-26-002; immutable engine record BRIER-FWD-0041; outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familyseventy-percent-and-counting; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-14, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.