CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.”
This claim comes from The Rearmament Ledger, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.40 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 40 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 16 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.40Locked probability
2026-11-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C4
Window as stated2026-11-16
How it will be settledYES if a daily contract announcement dated between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive names a Golden Dome, space based interceptor or SHIELD award or task order. A modification to an existing agreement counts only if the announcement identifies it as a new task order. NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromExplicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C4
Record classbrier native
Claim familygolden-dome-awards-2026-q4; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.