CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“In the advance retail sales release for October 2026, the twelve-month growth of retail and food services sales excluding gasoline stations is at least 1.0 percentage point below the twelve-month growth of total retail and food services sales.”
This claim comes from Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4, published on 23 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 23 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.75 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 75 in 100. It resolves by 17 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked23 Oct
Resolves by17 Nov
Today
On the Supply Chain & Logistics Horizon
From the reportHoliday Freight and Inventories, Q423 October 2026 · AIG-SCL-26-008Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-438The advance estimate of US retail and food services sales for October 2026 is at least 5.0 percent above October 2025.85% · resolves in 25 d
- CLM-2026-440The US total business inventories to sales ratio for September 2026 is 1.37 or lower.85% · resolves in 25 d
- CLM-2026-441US goods imports for September 2026 in the Census Bureau's advance report are USD 320.0 billion or more.75% · resolves in 5 d
- CLM-2026-442The advance estimate of US retail inventories for October 2026 is less than 6.0 percent above October 2025.80% · resolves in 35 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.75Locked probability
2026-11-17Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Holiday Freight and Inventories, Q4"
Window as stated17 Nov 2026
How it will be settledU.S. Census Bureau: YES if, in the advance release for October 2026, the twelve-month percent change in retail and food services sales excluding gasoline stations is at least 1.0 percentage point below the twelve-month percent change in total retail and food services sales, both seasonally adjusted and computed from the figures as first published, whatever the method.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyholiday-freight-and-inventories-q4; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-23, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.