CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“German production excluding energy and construction for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.”
This claim comes from Europe's Industrial Recession Test, published on 12 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 12 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.45 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 45 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 10 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked12 Oct
Resolves by10 Nov
Today
On the Mining & Manufacturing Horizon
From the reportEurope's Industrial Recession Test12 October 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-008Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-398The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.85% · resolves in 42 d
- CLM-2026-399The eurozone flash manufacturing PMI for November 2026, as first published.a range · resolves in 42 d
- CLM-2026-400Euro area industrial production for August 2026 is higher than in July.65% · resolves in 3 d
- CLM-2026-401German total production in industry for September 2026 is lower than in August.65% · resolves in 29 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.45Locked probability
2026-11-10Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Europe's Industrial Recession Test"
Window as stated10 Nov 2026
How it will be settledGerman Federal Statistical Office: YES if the first release of production in industry for September 2026 shows a seasonally and calendar adjusted month-on-month change of 0.0% or more for production excluding energy and construction, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyeurope-s-industrial-recession-test; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-12, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.