CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“The number of seats won by the Netanyahu bloc, as defined in Claim C-2, in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election.”
This claim comes from Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election, published on 8 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 47 to 60 seats with a central estimate of 53; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 7 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
47 to 60 seats (central 53)Locked range
2026-11-07Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Israel Votes on Schedule: the 27 October Knesset Election"
Window as statedup to and including 7 November 2026
How it will be settledHaaretz: The combined number of Knesset seats won by the lists that make up the Netanyahu bloc as defined in Claim C-2, in the seat allocation Haaretz reports for the 27 October 2026 election once the count of all votes, including soldiers’ and other double-envelope votes, is complete. The first such report counts; later corrections do not. The number reported settles the claim: inside 47 to 60 is a hit, outside is a miss. A list that falls below the electoral threshold counts as 0 seats.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familyisrael-votes-on-schedule-the-27-october-knesset-election; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.