CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“Across all three scenarios the corridor's structural cost base does not return to its January 2026 floor on a horizon shorter than two quarters.”
This claim comes from The Re-Priced Corridor, published on 1 June 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 1 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-12-01Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF page 13 (printed 12), Section 06 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
Window as stateda horizon shorter than two quarters
How it will be settledHull war-risk premium quotes (Lloyd's List, Howden Re, Platts) and JWC Listed Areas status through 1 December 2026 compared with the January 2026 baseline.
Where the probability came fromConfidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportMODERATE
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familyhormuz-002; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
SER-MAR-STRAIT-OF-HORMUZStrait of Hormuz · IMF PortWatch (T4) · data through 2026-09-06