CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker places the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the US Central Command area of responsibility in an edition published from 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09.”
This claim comes from Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.50 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 50 in 100. It resolves by 9 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.50Locked probability
2026-11-09Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Iran After the Talks: Sanctions, Inspectors and Carriers"
Window as statedfrom 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09
How it will be settledUSNI News: YES if any edition of the tracker published from 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09 inclusive shows the carrier in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden or another part of the Central Command area; a position reported only elsewhere in the Indian Ocean does not count.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyiran-after-the-talks-sanctions-inspectors-and-carriers; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.