CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“Fewer than 25,000 people are recorded arriving in the UK by small boat in the calendar year 2026 up to and including 26 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest, published on 29 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 29 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.55 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 55 in 100. It resolves by 27 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.55Locked probability
2026-12-27Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest"
Window as statedfrom 1 January 2026 until 27 Dec 2026
How it will be settledUK government open data: YES if the sum of daily small boat arrivals from 1 January to 26 December 2026 in the UK government's published small boat data, read on the resolution date, is below 25,000; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyelevated-and-persistent-risk-of-unrest-in-western-europe; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-29, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.