CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“Democrats and independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 Senate seats after the 2026 elections.”
This claim comes from Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk, published on 6 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 6 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.45 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 45 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 3 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.45Locked probability
2027-01-03Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk"
Window as statedup to and including 3 January 2027
How it will be settledAssociated Press: YES if, as of 2027-01-03, Associated Press race calls give Democrats plus independents caucusing with Democrats at least 51 of the 100 Senate seats for the Congress that begins in January 2027; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familymidterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-06, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.