CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“The monthly change in US manufacturing employment for October 2026.”
This claim comes from The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs, published on 10 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 October 2026. The firm locked a range of -15 to 35 thousand jobs with a central estimate of 10; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 6 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
-15 to 35 thousand jobs (central 10)Locked range
2026-11-06Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs"
Window as statedfor the October 2026 reading, published on or before 6 November 2026
How it will be settledBureau of Labor Statistics: the over-the-month change in manufacturing employment for October 2026, in thousands, as first published in the Employment Situation of 6 November 2026, whatever the method.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.