CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“At least one Atlantic hurricane other than Isaias forms between 9 October 2026 and 30 November 2026.”
This claim comes from The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks, published on 9 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.35 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 35 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 1 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.35Locked probability
2026-12-01Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks"
Window as statedfrom 9 October 2026 up to and including 30 November 2026
How it will be settledAssociated Press: YES if Associated Press reporting published by 1 December 2026 states that an Atlantic tropical cyclone other than Isaias reached hurricane strength between 9 October and 30 November 2026, using the operational count as first reported, whatever later reanalysis says; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-09, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.