CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“US real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 grows at an annual rate of at least 1.0 percent in the BEA advance estimate.”
This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?, published on 7 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 7 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.80 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 80 in 100. It resolves by 29 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.80Locked probability
2026-10-29Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?"
Window as statedfor the third quarter of 2026, in the advance estimate published up to and including 29 October 2026
How it will be settledBureau of Economic Analysis: YES if the advance estimate of real GDP for the third quarter of 2026 shows growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate at or above 1.0 percent, as first published, whatever the method.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-07, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.