CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“Flavio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's presidential runoff of 25 October 2026.”
This claim comes from Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real, published on 9 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.72 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 72 in 100. It resolves by 6 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.72Locked probability
2026-11-06Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Brazil's Runoff: Bolsonaro, Lula and the Real"
Window as statedup to and including 6 November 2026
How it will be settledReuters: YES if Reuters reports, by 6 November 2026, that the Superior Electoral Court has declared Flavio Bolsonaro the winner of the 25 October 2026 runoff; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familybrazil-s-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-and-the-real; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-09, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.