CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“On 31 December 2026 the US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures price, converted to tonnes, is at least twice the LME Steel HRC FOB China (Argus) price.”
This claim comes from Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall"
Window as statedon 31 December 2026, or the last trading day before it
How it will be settledLME market data: YES if the Investing.com US Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Futures close for 31 December 2026, or the last trading day before it, divided by 0.907185, is at least 2.0 times the LME Steel HRC FOB China (Argus) price for the same date, or the last published before it, each as first published.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familysteel-aluminium-and-the-50-percent-tariff-wall; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.