CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“The November 2025 suspensions are tactical de-escalation, not structural relief. The licensing architecture, the case-by-case discretion, and the prohibition on exports to military end-users all remain in place.”
This claim comes from Critical Minerals Under Pressure, published on 26 May 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 30 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-11-30Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF p.3, KJ-4 (landing page lists it as KJ-3)
Window as statedunstated
How it will be settledMOFCOM announcements and trade-press reporting on whether the one-year suspensions lapse, are re-tightened, or are converted into durable rollback (suspension expiry cited elsewhere in the brief as roughly 27 November 2026).
Where the probability came fromConfidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportMODERATE
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familyminerals-001; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.