CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“Average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees rise 3.1 percent or less over the 12 months to October 2026.”
This claim comes from US Prices and Wages After the First Hike, published on 10 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.80 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 80 in 100. It resolves by 7 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.80Locked probability
2026-11-07Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "US Prices and Wages After the First Hike"
Window as stated7 Nov 2026
How it will be settledBureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for October 2026, in the Employment Situation news release, is at or below 3.1 percent, as first published, whatever the method.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyus-prices-and-wages-after-the-first-hike; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.