CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The maximum authorised draft in the Panama Canal Neopanamax locks in effect on 28 December 2026 is 49.0 feet or more.”
This claim comes from Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits, published on 8 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.55 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 55 in 100. It resolves by 28 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.55Locked probability
2026-12-28Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits"
Window as statedon 28 December 2026
How it will be settledHellenic Shipping News: YES if the latest Panama Canal Authority draft advisory reported on or before 28 December 2026 sets a Neopanamax maximum authorised draft of 49.0 feet, 14.94 metres, or more that is in effect on that date; NO if the draft in effect on that date is below 49.0 feet.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familychoke-points-of-a-hot-pacific-rice-export-bans-and-panama; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.