After the Duma
Does Putin's post-election calendar open a ceasefire window before winter?
The post-election calendar opens a talks window and a coercion window at the same time, with the second at least as well documented as the first.
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-264 | The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its official determination of the results of the 18 to 20 September 2026 election. | 0.80 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-05 | Locked | |
| CLM-2026-265 | Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in a meeting all three governments publicly acknowledge as trilateral, on or before 9 October 2026. | 0.55 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-09 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
The post-election calendar opens a talks window and a coercion window at the same time, with the second at least as well documented as the first.
The complete source registry, limits, methodology and binding forecast definitions are preserved in the downloadable report. Each forecast is locked before publication to a named public resolution source.
The evidence tiers, confidence bands, forward-claim rule and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.