CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“The ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 is at or above 50.0.”
This claim comes from The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs, published on 10 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 1 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2026-12-01Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs"
Window as statedfor the November 2026 reading, published on or before 1 December 2026
How it will be settledReuters: YES if Reuters reports a headline ISM manufacturing PMI for November 2026 of 50.0 or higher, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.