Panama's Second Drought

Is 2026 a 2023 Repeat? Not Yet on the Water, Already in the Authority's Own Budget, and the Quarter That Binds Is Q1 2027

On 4 September 2026 the Panama Canal Authority did the opposite of what the market was positioned for: it postponed the reduction of Neopanamax draft to 47.5 ft until further notice, leaving 48.0 ft in force. The step still scheduled is smaller and less visible, a cut in daily booking slots from 34 to 32 for bookings from 15 September. Read against 2023, when draft reached 44 ft and daily transits the mid-twenties, the water is not in the same place: Gatun stood at about 84 ft on 20 August 2026

ISSUED 11 SEPTEMBER 2026 · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS · AEGEAN INTELLIGENCE GROUP · AUDITED AGAINST AEGEAN-OS

THE DOCUMENT

NumberAIG-SCL-26-001

Product IDPMR-2026-0914-PAN-001

ProductAssessment

Issued2026-09-11

Pages23

DistributionPublic release

TimelinessCurrent to 11 September 2026. The confirmed booking-slot reduction applies from 15 September; the next NOAA ENSO discuss

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Aegean Intelligence Group, “Panama's Second Drought,” AIG-SCL-26-001, The Aegean Register, 11 September 2026.

Abstract

Central finding

The Panama Canal is repeating 2023, but not on the schedule the calendar of advisories implies, and the mismatch is where the money is.

Publication at a glance

Source registry49 entries

Forward claims2

Pages23

Issued 2026-09-11Public releaseCURRENTAIG-SCL-26-001

Cover

FORWARD CLAIMS · DATED TO PUBLICATION · SCORED ON THE SCORECARD →

ID	Statement	p	Made on	Resolves by	Status	Outcome
CLM-2026-283	The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum authorised Neopanamax draft of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) or lower, or reduces total daily booking slots below 32.	0.20	2026-09-11	2026-11-03	Locked
CLM-2026-284	The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured in feet.	45 to 48 feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft (central 47)	2026-09-11	2027-02-16	Locked

A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.

THE CENTRAL JUDGMENT

KEY JUDGMENTS

Bottom line

The Panama Canal is repeating 2023, but not on the schedule the calendar of advisories implies, and the mismatch is where the money is.

KJ-01Current conditions are materially better than in September 2023: draft is 48.0 ft, the queue is smaller, and ACP postponed the next cut. The current Gatun reading is a single Tier 3 relay, so this judgment remains Moderate.,,MODERATE

KJ-02ACP's FY2027 budget is a drought-year plan: 10,750 deep-draft transits, closer to the FY2024 drought outturn than FY2025 actuals. This is a primary planning comparison, not a realized decline.,,HIGH

KJ-03Q1 2027 is the decision horizon. ACP's history places strong El Nino effects in the following year, the last restriction ladder bottomed in February, and the Administrator named February or March 2027.,,,MODERATE

KJ-04The 4 September postponement is marginal easing, not restored capacity. ACP left 48.0 ft in force while preserving the confirmed reduction to 32 booking slots from 15 September.,MODERATE

KJ-05Allocation is the live constraint. Neopanamax booking utilization reached 112.27 per cent in July, while one slot cleared at $5.3 million on 25 August.,,,HIGH

KJ-06Rebase landed-cost plans to Q1 2027, secure transit optionality during Q4, and maintain a costed alternative for schedule-sensitive cargo. Rainfall remains unresolved, so the recommendation is Moderate confidence.,,MODERATE

SOURCES AND LIMITS

Open-source intelligence current through 11 September 2026. The publication carries a 49-entry source registry, explicit confidence tags, limitations, and deterministic resolution rules for its forward claims.

SOURCE REGISTRY: 49 ENTRIES23 PAGESTIMELINESS: CURRENT

The source tiers, estimative language, forward-claim rule, scoring, and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.