Three Percent on Paper
Will the Legislative Yuan fund Lai's NT$1 trillion defence line before the November locals?
Taiwan's headline defence ratio, legislative calendar, and cross-strait activity point to three different clocks, none of which should be collapsed into one signal.
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-266 | The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single reporting day between 1 and 10 October 2026 inclusive. | 0.12 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-11 | Locked | |
| CLM-2026-267 | The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026. | 0.15 | 2026-09-11 | 2027-01-31 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
Taiwan's headline defence ratio, legislative calendar, and cross-strait activity point to three different clocks, none of which should be collapsed into one signal.
The complete source registry, limits, methodology and binding forecast definitions are preserved in the downloadable report. Each forecast is locked before publication to a named public resolution source.
The evidence tiers, confidence bands, forward-claim rule and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.