Three Percent on Paper
Will the Legislative Yuan fund Lai's NT$1 trillion defence line before the November locals?
Taiwan's headline defence ratio, legislative calendar, and cross-strait activity point to three different clocks, none of which should be collapsed into one signal.
2 calls from this report, among 40 in Political Risk & Governance.
Each line is one call in the domain, from the day it was written to the day it resolves. This report's calls are lit; point at any line to read it.
- CLM-2026-266The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single reporting day between 1 and 10 October 2026 inclusive.12% · Did not come true · 10 Oct
- CLM-2026-267The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026.15% · resolves in 95 d
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-266 | The Republic of China Ministry of National Defense reports at least 30 sorties of PLA aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone on a single reporting day between 1 and 10 October 2026 inclusive. | 0.12 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-11 | Resolved | FALSE 23 PLA aircraft detected, of which 16 crossed the median line and entered the northern, central and southwestern airspace2026-10-10 |
| CLM-2026-267 | The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026. | 0.15 | 2026-09-11 | 2027-01-31 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
Taiwan's headline defence ratio, legislative calendar, and cross-strait activity point to three different clocks, none of which should be collapsed into one signal.
The complete source registry, limits, methodology and binding forecast definitions are preserved in the downloadable report. Each forecast is locked before publication to a named public resolution source.
The evidence tiers, confidence bands, forward-claim rule and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.