The Ground Underneath the Map
Reference-Frame Modernization, Vertical Land Motion, and the Hidden Basis Risk in Insurance
3 calls from this report, among 24 in Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk.
Each line is one call in the domain, from the day it was written to the day it resolves. This report's calls are lit; point at any line to read it.
- CLM-2026-022Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.85% · resolves in 207 d
- CLM-2026-015Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027.65% · resolves in 426 d
- CLM-2026-013During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.85% · resolves in 1887 d
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-013 | During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction. | 0.85 | 2026-05-26 | 2031-12-31 | Locked | |
| CLM-2026-015 | Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027. | 0.65 | 2026-05-26 | 2027-12-31 | Locked | |
| CLM-2026-022 | Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path. | 0.85 | 2026-05-26 | 2027-05-26 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
Public-source synthesis exclusively, drawing on NOAA, NASA, USGS, National Geodetic Survey, IERS, ITRF/IGN, FEMA, and FHFA materials plus peer-reviewed geophysics and geodesy literature (Journal of Geodesy, GRL, JGR, Wiley Groundwater). Claims are structured as six key judgments with explicit confidence levels and superscript citations into a 33-entry source registry, with each section closing in an assessment stating confidence and rationale.
Limitations: The public record contains no explicit federal policy guidance on treating reference-frame revision in insurance rating, so the regulatory direction will not be visible until the first NGS and FEMA joint advisory after the NAPGD2022 release.
Estimative language in this report follows the firm’s published standard: judgments carry HIGH, MODERATE, or LOW confidence, and each carries its rationale in the full report. The framework, source tiers, and anti-fabrication perimeter are public on the methodology page. Corrections issue as numbered addenda.